Tonight...Partly cloudy. Patchy freezing fog after midnight. Lows -5°F to -15°F.

Thursday...Partly cloudy. Patchy freezing fog in the morning. Isolated snow showers in the afternoon. Highs 21°F to 27°F. Chance of precipitation 20 percent. Lowest wind chill readings -17°F to -27°F in the morning.

Thursday Night...Not as cold. Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow. Lows 3°F to 11°F. Southwest winds around 15 mph after midnight.

Friday...Snow likely. Snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches. Highs 23°F to 29°F. West winds around 15 mph. Chance of snow 60 percent.

Friday Night...Snow likely. Snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches. Lows 15°F to 21°F. West winds around 15 mph. Chance of snow 70 percent.

Saturday...Snow likely. Moderate snow accumulations. Highs 23°F to 29°F. Chance of snow 70 percent.

Saturday Night...Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow. Lows 11°F to 17°F.

Sunday...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow. Highs 20°F to 26°F.

Sunday Night...Colder. Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of snow. Lows -1°F to 5°F.

Monday...Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of snow. Highs 13°F to 19°F.

Monday Night...Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of snow. Lows -1°F to -7°F.

Tuesday...Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of snow. Highs 16°F to 22°F.

Tuesday Night...Partly cloudy. Lows -5°F to 1°F.

Wednesday...Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of snow. Highs 13°F to 19°F.

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Mountain Weather

With temperatures of zero this morning I'm betting the groundhog is a no-show. Today will be a beautiful winter day with sunny skies, mountain temperatures rising into the teens and north to northwest winds blowing 10-20 mph. High pressure continues to dominate our weather pattern. Tonight, clear skies will help the temperatures plummet to below zero and warm up even more tomorrow.

Snowpack and Avalanche Discussion:

The Bridger, Madison and Gallatin Ranges, the Lionhead area near West Yellowstone:

If the air is minus 15, but my boots are in 32 degree standing water, my feet should be warm, right? Pushing the sled out of a slushy creek proved this just isn't so. Mark and I rode up Little Bear to Wheeler Peak in the northern Gallatin Range yesterday. The snowpack was thin and ranged from three to four feet deep with its lower half consisting of weak, faceted snow. But weak does not always mean unstable. In the absence of cracking, collapsing, recent avalanche activity, and poor test scores, we've got Very Good snow stability.

From the Bridger Range to Big Sky to West Yellowstone the Avalanche Danger is rated LOW. But even during times of widespread stability, there are always a few individual slopes that are not team players and could possibly be triggered. In one pit yesterday we found a pocket of preserved surface hoar from December 5th—an example of these crystals resilience. That's why we wear beacons, ski and snowmobile one at a time and do stability tests; because sometimes we get surprised. A low danger does not mean no danger.

The mountains around Cooke City and the Washburn Range:

The snowpack in the Cooke City region is deep and stable. The only exception is steep wind-loaded slopes. There's no shortage of snow to blow around in Cooke and folks reported small avalanches involving new, wind-blown snow in the last 48 hours. A YouTube clip shows a skier triggering a small slide on Monday, and yesterday a skier noted one natural (photo) and another human triggered slide in Sheep Creek.

For today, the Avalanche Danger is rated MODERATE on wind-loaded slopes steeper than 35 degrees. All other slopes have a LOW Avalanche Danger.

Information provided by Doug Chabot, Mark Staples, and Eric Knoff from the Gallatin National Forest Avalanche Center.

If you have any snowpack or avalanche observations, drop them a line at mtavalanche@gmail.com or call: 406-587-6984.

For detailed Avalanche Terms utilized here, please see the Avalanche Glossary.

West Yellowstone: Beacon Park Operational

Skiing or riding near West Yellowstone? Test your beacon skills at a beacon park near the old airport where you can search for pre-placed beacons switched on/off by a control panel. Look for it by orange snow fence and signage just south of the snow cross track.

9th ANNUAL KING AND QUEEN OF THE RIDGE

The 9th Annual King and Queen of the Ridge will be held at Bridger Bowl on Saturday, February 12. ALL proceeds go to the Friends of the Avalanche Center who use the money to promote avalanche education in southwest Montana. Last winter we taught 64 classes reaching over 4,900 people. You can help raise money to continue this education in 2 ways:

1). Get pledges and hike the ridge. You don't have to do 20 laps – you can get flat pledges and hike just once! Or you can test your mettle and try and break John Yarington's record of 29 laps in 5 hours.

2). Sponsor someone. If you don't have someone to sponsor, consider sponsoring the GNFAC since we'll be hiking for dollars. Click Here for more information and registration forms.