Today...Mostly sunny in the morning...then mostly cloudy with isolated snow showers in the afternoon. Highs 21°F to 27°F. Chance of snow 20 percent. Lowest wind chill readings -17°F to -27°F in the morning.

Tonight...Cloudy. Chance of snow in the evening...then snow likely after midnight. Snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches. Lows 4°F to 12°F. Southwest winds around 15 mph early in the morning. Chance of snow 60 percent.

Friday...Snow likely. Snow accumulation of 2 to 3 inches. Highs 24°F to 30°F. Southwest winds around 15 mph early in the morning becoming west around 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of snow 70 percent.

Friday Night...Snow likely. Snow accumulation of 2 to 3 inches. Lows 15°F to 21°F. West winds around 15 mph. Chance of snow 70 percent.

Saturday...Snow in the morning...then snow likely in the afternoon. Snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches. Highs 22°F to 28°F. Chance of snow 90 percent.

Saturday Night...Snow likely. Light snow accumulations. Lows 12°F to 18°F. Chance of snow 70 percent.

Sunday...Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming partly cloudy. A 40 percent chance of snow. Highs 13°F to 19°F.

Sunday Night...Much colder. Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow. Lows -6°F below to 0°F.

Monday...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of snow. Highs 11°F to 17°F.

Monday Night...Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of snow. Lows -3°F to -9°F.

Tuesday...Partly cloudy in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of snow. Highs 13°F to 19°F.

Tuesday Night...Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of snow. Lows -5°F below to 1°F.

Wednesday...Partly cloudy. Highs 11°F to 17°F.

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Mountain Weather

Under clear skies, mountain temperatures range from 12 to 20 degrees above zero. West to northwest winds have increased from 10-15 mph yesterday morning to 20-30 mph. They will get even stronger this afternoon as the high pressure ridge flattens and clouds appear. Tonight, temperatures will fall into the low teens and scattered snowfall will measure a trace to one inch by morning. A strong northwest flow builds tomorrow and the weather models show a snowy weekend. My fingers are crossed.

Snowpack and Avalanche Discussion:

The Bridger, Madison and Gallatin Ranges, the Lionhead area near West Yellowstone, the mountains around Cooke City and the Washburn Range:

The winds have not been confined to the ridgetops. Steady speeds of 20-30 mph are blowing downhill and across slopes at mid and lower elevations. In the last 24 hours wind drifts formed in gullies and on small terrain features which could be triggered today. I don't expect these wind pillows to be very big since there's not much loose snow to blow around, but even shallow slabs can fracture and carry us into terrain traps.

There are no consistent weak layers buried in our snowpack. We have very good snow stability even though thinner slopes have lots of facets. Mark and I found this on Wheeler Mountain in the northern Gallatin Range on Tuesday. Without a big load of snow, these slopes would be difficult to trigger. Eric found stable conditions yesterday in Dudley Creek in the northern Madison Range. He also saw an old avalanche from 12 days ago; weak, faceted snow formed around a rock band and then got loaded to its breaking point by new and windblown snow.

It looks like we're poised to bury the surface weaknesses that formed during the cold, clear weather this week. Surface hoar and near surface facets are on many slopes. Some may already be buried under new wind drifts. If the predicted snow falls, then this layer will be preserved and quickly become unstable.

Recently formed wind drifts are today's primary avalanche concern. Throughout our advisory area the Avalanche Danger is rated MODERATE on all wind-loaded slopes, and a LOW Avalanche Danger everywhere else.

Information provided by Doug Chabot, Mark Staples, and Eric Knoff from the Gallatin National Forest Avalanche Center.

If you have any snowpack or avalanche observations, drop them a line at mtavalanche@gmail.com or call: 406-587-6984.

For detailed Avalanche Terms utilized here, please see the Avalanche Glossary.

West Yellowstone: Beacon Park Operational

Skiing or riding near West Yellowstone? Test your beacon skills at a beacon park near the old airport where you can search for pre-placed beacons switched on/off by a control panel. Look for it by orange snow fence and signage just south of the snow cross track.

9th ANNUAL KING AND QUEEN OF THE RIDGE

The 9th Annual King and Queen of the Ridge will be held at Bridger Bowl on Saturday, February 12. ALL proceeds go to the Friends of the Avalanche Center who use the money to promote avalanche education in southwest Montana. Last winter we taught 64 classes reaching over 4,900 people. You can help raise money to continue this education in 2 ways:

1). Get pledges and hike the ridge. You don't have to do 20 laps – you can get flat pledges and hike just once! Or you can test your mettle and try and break John Yarington's record of 29 laps in 5 hours.

2). Sponsor someone. If you don't have someone to sponsor, consider sponsoring the GNFAC since we'll be hiking for dollars. Click Here for more information and registration forms.