Today...Snow likely. Snow accumulation around 2 inches. Highs 25°F to 31°F. Southwest winds around 15 mph. Chance of snow 70 percent.

Tonight...Breezy...snow. Snow accumulation of 2 to 3 inches. Lows 10°F to 16°F. Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of snow 90 percent.

Saturday...Breezy. Snow likely. Snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches. Highs 22°F to 28°F. Temperatures falling into the lower teens in the afternoon. West winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of snow 70 percent.

Saturday Night...Cloudy. Chance of snow in the evening...then snow likely after midnight. Snow accumulation around 1 inch. Lows 4°F to 10°F. Northwest winds around 15 mph in the evening. Chance of snow 60 percent.

Sunday...Snow likely. Snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches. Total snow accumulation 7 to 12 inches. Highs 16°F to 22°F. Chance of snow 70 percent.

Sunday Night...Colder. Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow. Lows -6°F to 0°F. Temperatures rising into the mid teens after midnight.

Monday...Snow likely. Moderate snow accumulations. Highs 20°F to 26°F. Chance of snow 70 percent. Lowest wind chill readings -16°F to -26°F in the morning.

Monday Night...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow. Lows -4°F to 2°F.

Tuesday...Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of snow. Highs 9°F to 15°F.

Tuesday Night...Colder. Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of snow. Lows -9°F to -17°F.

Wednesday...Partly cloudy. Highs 7°F to 13°F.

Wednesday Night...Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of snow. Lows -8°F to 0°F.

Thursday...Not as cold. Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of snow. Highs 17°F to 23°F.

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Mountain Weather

After cold weather early this week, this morning feels like a heat wave with temperatures in the mid to high 20s Fahrenheit except near West Yellowstone where temperatures were in the low teens Fahrenheit. Winds this morning were blowing 20-35 mph from the West and Northwest. Most places received an inch of snow overnight and more should return later today. High temperatures should be near 30 degrees Fahrenheit (low 20s for West Yellowstone) and strong winds will continue blowing 20-40 mph from the West and Northwest. 3-4 inches of snow should accumulate by tomorrow morning. Sunday evening I'm expecting more snow and a big win by the Steelers.

Snowpack and Avalanche Discussion:

The Bridger, Madison and Gallatin Ranges, the Lionhead area near West Yellowstone, the mountains around Cooke City and the Washburn Range:

The primary issue today will be shallow wind slabs formed by strong winds during the last 48 hours. Without much new snow available, these fresh wind slabs shouldn't be very wide or deep. They will mainly be a problem in terrain where small slides have the potential to sweep a skier or rider over rocks, into trees, or into a confined gully amplifying the consequences of a small slide.

A future issue will be bonding between new snow and the old snow surface. The old snow surface became weak and faceted during recent dry weather with warm sunny days and clear cold nights. How does this happen? Read an article that Doug wrote recently. In many areas strong winds removed this thin layer of near surface facets. These events create spatial variability meaning some slopes will have this new weak layer and others will not. Identify slopes where new snow doesn't seem to bond well because these slopes will be problem once a slab forms.

An older issue is any slope with relatively thin snow. You've found one of these slopes if you step out of your skis or off your sled and immediately sink to the ground. These slopes exist at low elevations where less snow has fallen or at higher elevations in steep rocky terrain. Even though the snowpack on these slopes is weak, it has not been stressed by recent snow and is mostly stable. Avalanches occurred on these slopes during the third week of January after a week of snowfall and wind loading. It will take more significant snowfall and wind to activate these slopes again.

Recently formed wind drifts are today's primary avalanche concern. Throughout our advisory area the Avalanche Danger is rated MODERATE on all wind-loaded slopes steeper than 35 degrees and LOW Avalanche Danger everywhere else.

Information provided by Doug Chabot, Mark Staples, and Eric Knoff from the Gallatin National Forest Avalanche Center.

If you have any snowpack or avalanche observations, drop them a line at mtavalanche@gmail.com or call: 406-587-6984.

For detailed Avalanche Terms utilized here, please see the Avalanche Glossary.

West Yellowstone: Beacon Park Operational

Skiing or riding near West Yellowstone? Test your beacon skills at a beacon park near the old airport where you can search for pre-placed beacons switched on/off by a control panel. Look for it by orange snow fence and signage just south of the snow cross track.

9th ANNUAL KING AND QUEEN OF THE RIDGE

The 9th Annual King and Queen of the Ridge will be held at Bridger Bowl on Saturday, February 12. ALL proceeds go to the Friends of the Avalanche Center who use the money to promote avalanche education in southwest Montana. Last winter we taught 64 classes reaching over 4,900 people. You can help raise money to continue this education in 2 ways:

1). Get pledges and hike the ridge. You don't have to do 20 laps – you can get flat pledges and hike just once! Or you can test your mettle and try and break John Yarington's record of 29 laps in 5 hours.

2). Sponsor someone. If you don't have someone to sponsor, consider sponsoring the GNFAC since we'll be hiking for dollars. Click Here for more information and registration forms.