Today...Breezy. Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow. Highs 26°F to 32°F. Southwest winds 15 to 25 mph.

Tonight...Breezy. Cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow. Lows 9°F to 15°F. South winds 15 to 20 mph.

Saturday...Cloudy. Chance of snow in the morning...then snow likely in the afternoon. Snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches. Highs 30°F to 36°F. South winds around 15 mph in the morning. Chance of snow 70 percent.

Saturday Night...Snow likely. Snow accumulation around 2 inches. Lows 9°F to 15°F. East winds around 15 mph shifting to the south after midnight. Chance of snow 70 percent.

Sunday...Snow likely in the morning...then chance of snow in the afternoon. Snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches. Total snow accumulation 4 to 6 inches. Highs 22°F to 28°F. Southwest winds around 15 mph. Chance of snow 70 percent.

Sunday Night...Cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow. Lows 4°F to 10°F.

Presidents' Day / Monday...Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming partly cloudy. A 30 percent chance of snow. Highs 19°F to 25°F.

Presidents' Day / Monday Night...Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of snow. Lows 3°F to 9°F.

Tuesday...Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of snow. Highs 20°F to 26°F.

Tuesday Night...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow. Lows 4°F to 10°F.

Wednesday...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow. Highs 18°F to 24°F.

Wednesday Night...Colder. Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of snow. Lows -3°F to 3°F.

Thursday...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow. Highs 9°F to 17°F.

 Hazardous Weather  Gibbon Falls Forecast  Mammoth Forecast  Midway Forecast  Norris Forecast  Old Faithful Forecast 

Mountain Weather

Since yesterday morning the mountains near Cooke City and West Yellowstone received an additional 1-2 inches of snow. Most areas received strong winds which were blowing 15-45 mph from the SouthSouthWest this morning except in the Bridger Range where winds calmed overnight and were blowing 10-15 mph. Temperatures were in the low teens and high single digits Fahrenheit this morning. A moist Southwest flow will bring more snow by tomorrow morning with the southern parts of the advisory area receiving 2-3 inches and a trace to 1 inch further north. Today temperatures will be in the upper teens and low 20s Fahrenheit. Winds should decrease slightly and blow 10-30 mph.

Snowpack and Avalanche Discussion:

The Bridger, Madison and Gallatin Ranges, the Lionhead area near West Yellowstone, the mountains around Cooke City and the Washburn Range:

The main event continues to be wind, which combined with new snow, has created many soft wind slabs. Yesterday on Mount Blackmore in Hyalite Canyon I found wind speeds that were perfect for transporting snow and forming fresh wind slabs. These wind slabs readily cracked under my skis. Similar conditions were observed by the Bridger Bowl Ski Patrol, Moonlight Basin Ski Patrol, and an observer in Cooke City. In all cases these slabs were most reactive on slopes steeper than 35 degrees. Unfortunately winds continued overnight and will keep these fresh wind slabs sensitive today.

A secondary concern is that many of these wind slabs formed by Southwest winds are resting on older hard slabs formed during extremely high winds early this week and last weekend. One of these hard slabs was responsible for a fatality on Monday on the West side of the Bridger Range in Truman Gulch. Triggering a fresh wind slab may trigger a hard slab underneath it though this possibility decreases each passing day.

One concern in the northern Gallatin Range near Hyalite Canyon is a weak layer formed at the beginning of February now buried 1.5 - 2 feet deep. I found it on Mount Blackmore and skiers in the Flanders drainage nearby found an identical layer which produced very similar stability test results. See a video of their results and contrast this with Doug's stability test and video from 10 days ago when it took much less force to break. This layer does not have enough stress from new snow to cause widespread problems unless it is stressed by a heavy wind load. This layer may also persist in pockets in the Bridger Range though it has healed during recent warm weather on many slopes.

Regardless of snowpack structure and potential weak layers which can vary widely, the main problems are fresh wind slabs and slopes loaded by strong Southwest winds. For today the Avalanche Danger is rated CONSIDERABLE on all wind loaded slopes. On slopes without a wind load, the Avalanche Danger is rated MODERATE.

Information provided by Doug Chabot, Mark Staples, and Eric Knoff from the Gallatin National Forest Avalanche Center. For Photos and Videos, please visit the Avalanche Centers Website!

If you have any snowpack or avalanche observations, drop them a line at mtavalanche@gmail.com or call: 406-587-6984.

For detailed Avalanche Terms utilized here, please see the Avalanche Glossary.

3rd Annual Montana Ale Works Fundraiser

When & Where: March 1, Tuesday at 6:00 p.m. in the Railcar.

Cost: $20 to benefit the Friends of the Avalanche Center

Details: Chef Roth at Montana Ale Works is creating tapas style servings that will be paired with select beer from Lone Peak Brewery. More information HERE.

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West Yellowstone: Beacon Park Operational

Skiing or riding near West Yellowstone? Test your beacon skills at a beacon park near the old airport where you can search for pre-placed beacons switched on/off by a control panel. Look for it by orange snow fence and signage just south of the snow cross track.