Today...Snow likely. Snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches. Total snow accumulation 1 to 3 inches. Highs 25°F to 31°F. Southwest winds around 15 mph early in the morning becoming west around 15 mph late in the afternoon. Chance of snow 70 percent.

Tonight...Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. A 50 percent chance of snow. Lows 10°F to 16°F.

Wednesday...Partly cloudy. Highs 26°F to 32°F.

Wednesday Night...Partly cloudy. Patchy fog after midnight. Lows 9°F to 15°F.

Thursday...Partly cloudy. Patchy fog in the morning. Highs 28°F to 34°F. Southwest winds around 15 mph in the afternoon.

Thursday Night...Partly cloudy. Lows 11°F to 17°F.

Friday...Mostly cloudy. Highs 28°F to 34°F.

Friday Night...Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of snow. Lows 14°F to 20°F.

Saturday...Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of snow. Highs 25°F to 31°F.

Saturday Night...Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of snow. Lows 8°F to 14°F.

Sunday...Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of snow. Highs 24°F to 30°F.

Sunday Night...Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of snow. Lows 4°F to 12°F.

Monday...Mostly cloudy. Highs 21°F to 27°F.

 Hazardous Weather  Gibbon Falls Forecast  Mammoth Forecast  Midway Forecast  Norris Forecast  Old Faithful Forecast 

Mountain Weather

This is the thirteenth day in a row that we've gotten new snow in our advisory area. Last night all the ski areas picked up 3-4 inches with 2-3 inches falling everywhere else. Winds are blowing westerly at 10-20 mph with temperatures in the low 20s in the north to 10 degrees outside Cooke City. Scattered snowfall this morning will only drop another inch in the mountains. Under mostly cloudy skies winds will blow westerly at 15-25 mph as temperatures warm into the upper 20s.

Snowpack and Avalanche Discussion:

The Bridger, Madison and Gallatin Ranges, the Lionhead area near West Yellowstone, the mountains around Cooke City and the Washburn Range:

Last night's snowfall will improve the skiing and riding conditions without spiking the danger. The snowpack is strengthening, even with consistent snowfall. A few small crowns were noted on Cedar Mountain in the northern Madison Range yesterday, but the bigger, deeper slides happened late last week following the biggest snowfalls and strongest winds. These avalanches fell into two categories: either wind-loaded slopes or thinner, faceted snowpacks. One large avalanche on Republic Peak, another on Beaverhead in the southern Madison Range and a slide in the Bridger Range on Hardscrabble were all wind-loaded. Since then, even though a few inches have fallen every day, we're finding activity decreasing as the snowpack adjusts to this load. Even the wind slabs are getting progressively harder to trigger. There are no widespread, prominent weak layers in the snowpack, but that doesn't mean you can get away with reckless behavior. Although natural avalanche activity is unlikely today, it's still possible to trigger a slide on wind-loaded slopes or areas that have thinner, weaker snow. Wind loads will be found near the ridgetops. To find thinner areas, try and poke a ski pole to the ground or step off your machine to see if you sink through the snowpack; faceted, sugary, weak snow is unsupportable.

Given these stability concerns, the Avalanche Danger is rated MODERATE on all slopes today.

If you have been backcountry skiing all winter you may have noticed that since the New Year, the snowpack has slowly developed more facets on its lower half. Our snowpits show the top half consisting of new, decomposing stellar crystals with the bottom half sitting on mixed forms—snow crystals that are mildly faceted. Unlike the sugary consistency of well developed facets, the faceting on these mixed forms are subtle and sometimes require a hand lens to see. Facet is an ugly word which typically is synonymous with avalanche activity. But so far this year, this lower layer is dense, not reacting in our stability tests and only produced isolated avalanche activity even after large snowfalls. This is the strongest snowpack I've seen in three years. It's refreshing not being gripped on every slope, every day.

If you have any snowpack or avalanche observations, drop them a line at mtavalanche@gmail.com or call: 406-587-6984.

Information provided by Doug Chabot, Mark Staples, and Eric Knoff from the Gallatin National Forest Avalanche Center.

For detailed Avalanche Terms utilized here, please see the Avalanche Glossary.