Today...Breezy. Cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow. Highs 27°F to 33°F. Southwest winds 15 to 25 mph.

Tonight...Breezy. Partly cloudy. Chance of snow in the evening... Then slight chance of snow after midnight. Lows 9°F to 15°F. Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of snow 30 percent.

Wednesday...Breezy. Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of snow in the morning...then chance of snow in the afternoon. Areas of blowing snow in the afternoon. Highs 32°F to 38°F. Southwest winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of snow 40 percent.

Wednesday Night...Breezy. Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow. Lows 16°F to 22°F. Southwest winds 15 to 25 mph.

Thursday...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow. Highs 28°F to 34°F. Southwest winds around 15 mph.

Thursday Night...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow. Lows 10°F to 16°F.

Friday...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow. Highs 25°F to 31°F.

Friday Night...Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of snow. Lows 6°F to 12°F.

Saturday...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow. Highs 26°F to 32°F.

Saturday Night...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow. Lows 11°F to 17°F.

Sunday...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow. Highs 25°F to 31°F.

Sunday Night...Colder. Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of snow. Lows 4°F to 10°F.

Monday...Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of snow. Highs 22°F to 28°F.

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Mountain Weather

Since yesterday morning two inches of snow fell from Big Sky to West Yellowstone with Cooke City getting four inches. Mountain temperatures are in the upper teens, just a few degrees colder than yesterday's high. Wind is the weather story. West to southwest winds started blowing yesterday morning and are averaging 25 mph with gusts to 68 mph. Mid slope anemometers are showing winds raking all elevations. These speeds will decrease to 20-30 mph later this morning. In the next 24 hours, under mostly cloudy skies mountain temperatures will climb only a few degrees with little chance of snowfall.

Snowpack and Avalanche Discussion:

The Bridger, Madison and Gallatin Ranges and the Lionhead area near West Yellowstone:

It's going to be difficult to find slopes not affected by the wind. Many are scoured, some are drifted with shallow pockets and a few have meaty wind-loads. With wind speeds reaching over 60 mph, even pock marked, scoured surfaces will get further eroded. The strongest winds were at the ridgetops, but mid elevation slopes were not spared with snow being cross loaded into gullies. Mark took a long tour in the Spanish Peaks on Sunday and found most snow glued down and not moving. Without a widespread weak layer, the stability issue is confined to wind affected slopes where it's still possible to trigger an avalanche. Recent winds also helped add a few feet of growth to the cornices at the ridgetops. Cornices are scary because they break further back than expected, plus they are big triggers. Each six foot tall by three feet deep by three feet wide section of snow weighs about 2,000 pounds, so a 12 foot long cornice is an 8,000 pound (4 ton) trigger. Weak layers are relative, so even in a strong snowpack a big trigger can sometimes create an avalanche.

For today, the Avalanche Danger is rated MODERATE on any slope wind-loaded as well as any slope steeper than 35 degrees. Lower angled, non-wind-loaded terrain has a LOW Avalanche Danger.

The mountains around Cooke City and the Washburn Range:

The mountains outside Cooke City got four inches of snow yesterday with strong winds. My partner and I had a beautiful, calm, sunny day on Sunday, only to have blizzard conditions at the passes yesterday morning. I'm not instrument rated on my snowmobile so navigation was limited to the groomed trail. Snow was blowing and loading slopes at all elevations. On Sunday we saw an avalanche on Abundance and Sheep mountains caused by cornice falls. We also investigated a small skier triggered slide near Round Lake on a wind-loaded rollover. My primary avalanche concern is on wind-loaded slopes. I do not expect avalanches to break deep. Instead I'm concerned with slabs formed in the last 24 to 36 hours which will be the most likely to fracture.

For today, all wind-loaded terrain has a CONSIDERABLE Avalanche Danger. Slopes mercifully spared the wind will have MODERATE Avalanche Danger if they are steeper than 35 degrees and LOW on less steep.

PHOTOS, SNOWPITS, VIDEO and SURVEY RESULTS

1. We've recently uploaded more photos and snowpits to our web site, more than what are linked in the advisory.

2. We're creating a series of "How To…" stability test videos. So far we've got clips on performing a CT and ECT. There are located under Stability Tests on the Resources page.

3. The results from our survey are posted online. Thanks to all who participated. You can check out the results at http://bit.ly/fpLuSi.

In response to our survey we added a new page to the website with images of our snowpit profiles. This page is under the Resources/Other Info tab at http://fsavalanche.org/Encyclopedia/snowpit.htm

Information provided by Doug Chabot, Mark Staples, and Eric Knoff from the Gallatin National Forest Avalanche Center. For Photos and Videos, please visit the Avalanche Centers Website!

If you have any snowpack or avalanche observations, drop them a line at mtavalanche@gmail.com or call: 406-587-6984.

For detailed Avalanche Terms utilized here, please see the Avalanche Glossary.

Upcoming Events

TONIGHT - 3rd Annual Montana Ale Works Fundraiser

When & Where: March 1, Tuesday at 6:00 p.m. in the Railcar.

Cost: $20 to benefit the Friends of the Avalanche Center

Details: Chef Roth at Montana Ale Works is creating tapas style servings that will be paired with select beer from Lone Peak Brewery. More information HERE.

SATURDAY - Pinhead Classic

The 30th Annual Pinhead Classic on is Saturday, March 5th. "Gangsters and Flappers" is this year's costume theme, so come dressed up to race, socialize and wind great prizes. Registration is $30 but get you all sorts of cool stuff. All proceeds benefit the Friends of the Avalanche Center. Check out the website http://pinheadclassic.com for details.