Friday: Patchy fog before 11:00am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 26°F. Wind chill values as low as -15°F. South wind between 5 and 7 mph.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 11°F. Wind chill values as low as 0°F. Southwest wind between 7 and 9 mph.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 32°F. South southeast wind between 5 and 7 mph.

Sunday / Christmas Day: Patchy fog before 11:00 am. Otherwise, mostly sunny, with a high near 34°F. South southwest wind between 9 and 18 mph, with gusts as high as 28 mph.

Monday: Partly sunny, with a high near 30°F.

Tuesday: A 20 percent chance of snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 32°F.

Wednesday: A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35°F.

Thursday: A slight chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 37°F.

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Mountain Weather

Yesterday was beautiful and clear but winds increased in the afternoon. This morning on ridgetops at Bridger Bowl and Hyalite Canyon winds were blowing 25-30 mph with gusts 40-50 mph from the West and Northwest. In other areas winds were blowing 15 mph gusting to 30 mph. Temperatures this morning were in the teens Fahrenheit and will climb into the 20s Fahrenheit today. Winds will remain strong generally blowing 15-30 from the Northwest; however, some downslope winds will occur today. It looks like the boys and girls of Southwest Montana have been bad this year and will not get any snow for Christmas. Instead of coal in our stockings, it looks like we'll get a good dose of wind.

Snowpack and Avalanche Discussion:

The Bridger, Gallatin and Madison Ranges, the Lionhead area near West Yellowstone and mountains around Cooke City:

Weak snow continues to plague much of Southwest Montana, but finding avalanches today will require finding wind loaded slopes. Recent winds scoured many slopes typically wind loaded and blew snow onto others that are typically not. Additionally, increased winds today may start loading some slopes not at the top but further down, mid-path.

Yesterday on Lionhead, Doug and Eric found many East facing avalanche starting zones scoured of all the new snow. They were able to see Eric's snowpits from nearly 1 month ago. The snowpack near West Yellowstone has weakened everyday during that time. Further north, recent snowfall dodged the Bridger Range but winds have not. In that area wind slabs may not as large as in other areas, but they should fracture just as easily.

In Hyalite Canyon yesterday I was fortunate to ski with two experienced, avalanche professionals. We experienced no collapsing or cracking, and from the top of Palace Butte could only find one recent natural avalanche. Other parties in the area reported similar findings, and these reports are promising given the heavy load of new snow. The Hyalite area has received more snow than other areas and has a stronger snowpack than other areas. It is slowly earning my trust, but we remained cautious as this snowfall was the first big test for this snowpack. Yesterday winds were confined to ridgetops but today they should affect more areas and keep the avalanche danger elevated. Cooke City has a similar snowpack.

Although the snow storm ended Wednesday, the "wind storm" began yesterday afternoon. Some natural avalanches should occur on wind loaded slopes, and human triggered avalanches will be likely on these slopes.

For today a CONSIDERABLE Avalanche Danger exists on all wind loaded slopes. With a generally weak snowpack and a good dose of new snow, avalanches are definitely possible on slopes not affected by the wind where a MODERATE Avalanche Danger exists.

The next advisory tomorrow morning at 7:30 a.m. If you have any snowpack or avalanche observations, drop us a line at mtavalanche@gmail.com or call us at: 406-587-6984.

EDUCATION, EVENTS, PHOTOS, SNOWPITS, and VIDEOS

1. We've recently uploaded more photos and snowpits to our web site, more than what are linked in the advisory.

2. We're creating a series of "How To…" stability test videos. So far we've got clips on performing a CT and ECT. There are located under Stability Tests on the Resources page.

3. Check out all our education programs, Click Here.

Information provided by Doug Chabot, Mark Staples, and Eric Knoff from the Gallatin National Forest Avalanche Center. For Events and Education, or Photos and Videos, please visit the Avalanche Centers Website!

If you have any snowpack or avalanche observations, drop them a line at mtavalanche@gmail.com or call: 406-587-6984.

For detailed Avalanche Terms utilized here, please see the Avalanche Glossary.