Sunday / Christmas Day: Mostly sunny, with a high near 33°F. Wind chill values as low as 0°F. South wind between 13 and 16 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph.

Sunday / Christmas Night: Increasing clouds, with a low around 15°F. South southwest wind around 17 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph.

Monday: Increasing clouds, with a high near 29°F. Southwest wind between 7 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.

Monday Night: A 30 percent chance of snow, mainly after 11:00 pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 15°F. Southwest wind between 10 and 16 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph.

Tuesday: A 30 percent chance of snow, mainly before 11:00 am. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 32°F. Southwest wind between 14 and 17 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph.

Tuesday Night: A 20 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22°F. Southwest wind around 9 mph.

Wednesday: A 40 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 37°F.

Wednesday Night: A 20 percent chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 2°F.

Thursday: A chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 38°F. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Thursday Night: A slight chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 20°F.

Friday: A slight chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 34°F.

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Mountain Weather

Unseasonably warm and dry conditions will remain over southwest Montana through Christmas Day. Currently mountain temperatures are in the high teens to mid 20s Fahrenheit and winds are blowing out of the west at 10-20 mph. Today temperatures will climb into the mid 30s Fahrenheit under partly cloudy skies. Winds will gradually increase from the west blowing 20-30 mph by this evening. A weak cold front will arrive later tonight bringing cloudy and cooler conditions tomorrow. Unfortunately very little precipitation will be associated with this front.

Snowpack and Avalanche Discussion:

The Gallatin and Madison Ranges, the Lionhead area near West Yellowstone and mountains around Cooke City:

Big snow appears to be number one on the Christmas wish list, but unfortunately this wish is backordered. As a result, the snowpack has not changed much over the past few days. Strong winds out of the west continue to load slopes on the east half of the compass, forming stiff and punchy wind slabs, specifically on upper elevation slopes below ridgelines. While recently formed slabs may feel strong and supportable, they likely rest over lower density faceted snow, making them sensitive to the weight of a skier or rider.

Yesterday, the Moonlight Basin Ski Patrol triggered multiple avalanches during control work, some of which failed on facets near the ground. Also, skiers in Beehive Basin on Friday triggered an avalanche on a west facing slope around 9,000 feet. This slide also failed on facets near the ground and occurred on a non-wind loaded slope.

Today, wind slabs resting over weak faceted snow make human triggered avalanches likely in wind loaded terrain where the Avalanche Danger is rated CONSIDERABLE. Non-wind loaded slopes have MODERATE Avalanche Danger.

The Bridger Range:

Though the weather outside is delightful

The rocks under the snow are frightful

So, if you're heading to Bridger Bowl

Do a dance for snow, snow, and more snow

Bottom line is the Bridger Range just doesn't have enough snow to harbor widespread instability. The limited snow that did fall during last week's storm has either been blown to North Dakota or has formed stiff and punchy wind slabs below the ridgelines. Yesterday, Mark and I skied Hidden Gully to the Apron and found wind slabs to be isolated and stubborn. However, we both felt it could be possible to trigger a wind loaded slope, specifically in steep terrain below ridgelines.

Today - human triggered avalanches are possible on wind loaded slopes where the Avalanche Danger is rated MODERATE. Non-wind loaded slopes have a LOW Avalanche Danger.

The next advisory tomorrow morning at 7:30 a.m. If you have any snowpack or avalanche observations, drop us a line at mtavalanche@gmail.com or call us at: 406-587-6984.

Beacon Parks

The Friends of the Avalanche Center installed a Beacon Training Park outside West Yellowstone last Friday. It's located south of town on the main snowmobile trail. Stop by and do a quick practice before heading off into the mountains!

EDUCATION, EVENTS, PHOTOS, SNOWPITS, and VIDEOS

1. We've recently uploaded more photos and snowpits to our web site, more than what are linked in the advisory.

2. We're creating a series of "How To…" stability test videos. So far we've got clips on performing a CT and ECT. There are located under Stability Tests on the Resources page.

3. Check out all our education programs, Click Here.

Information provided by Doug Chabot, Mark Staples, and Eric Knoff from the Gallatin National Forest Avalanche Center. For Events and Education, or Photos and Videos, please visit the Avalanche Centers Website!

If you have any snowpack or avalanche observations, drop them a line at mtavalanche@gmail.com or call: 406-587-6984.

For detailed Avalanche Terms utilized here, please see the Avalanche Glossary.