Today...Partly cloudy. Highs 22°F to 28°F. Lowest wind chill readings -14°F to -24°F in the morning.

Tonight...Partly cloudy in the evening then clearing. Patchy fog after midnight. Lows -5°F to 5°F.

Wednesday...Partly cloudy. Patchy fog in the morning. Highs 25°F to 31°F. Lowest wind chill readings -10°F to -20°F in the morning.

Wednesday Night...Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of snow. Lows 1°F to 9°F.

Thursday...Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming partly cloudy. Highs 25°F to 31°F.

Thursday Night...Partly cloudy. Lows 5°F to 11°F.

Friday...Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of snow. Highs 28°F to 34°F.

Friday Night...Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of snow. Lows 11°F to 17°F.

Saturday...Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of snow. Highs 27°F to 33°F.

Saturday Night...Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of snow. Lows 11°F to 17°F.

Sunday...Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of snow. Highs 25°F to 31°F.

Sunday Night...Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. A 40 percent chance of snow. Lows 10°F to 16°F.

Monday...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow. Highs 22°F to 28°F.

 Hazardous Weather  Gibbon Falls Forecast  Mammoth Forecast  Midway Forecast  Norris Forecast  Old Faithful Forecast 

Mountain Weather

Yesterday, a few flurries, clouds and colder temperatures were a reminder that winter has not completely forsaken us. This morning, mountain temperatures are in the high single digits Fahrenheit as light winds blow out of the southeast. Today, skies will become mostly sunny, temperatures will rise into the high teens Fahrenheit and southeast winds will blow 10-20 mph.

Snowpack and Avalanche Discussion:

The southern Madison and southern Gallatin Ranges, the Lionhead area near West Yellowstone and the mountains around Cooke City:

There are always zones of thin snow cover, but this season they have greater significance since we are able to trigger avalanches from these shallow spots. Deep in the snowpack near the ground are weak, faceted crystals draped like a blanket over most slopes. These facets link thin slopes to thicker ones. More importantly, they allow us to trigger avalanches from thin spots where our body weight adds enough stress to initiate cracks, collapse the weak layer and propagate fractures across the slope. Eric unintentionally triggered a large avalanche on Friday outside Cooke City on Mount Abundance when this happened. On Sunday, I investigated a large natural avalanche on Lionhead, likely triggered from a thin spot also.

It is not always obvious where these thin zones are, but as the snowpack adjusts to its load signs of instability are not obvious and we can be fooled into thinking slopes are more stable than they really are. It's tricky and dangerous times. Multiple people have been highmarking or skiing steep slopes without triggering a slide, but it would be wrong to confuse luck with a skilled assessment.

The fact that Eric got surprised with the instability is enough for me to be a little extra conservative. Recent avalanche activity and a persistent, widespread weak layer add seriousness to our decisions. Furthermore, some slopes in the southern Madison Range are plagued by a layer of feathery surface hoar crystals buried a foot deep creating instability too. For today, the Avalanche Danger is rated CONSIDERABLE on slopes steeper than 35 degrees and MODERATE Avalanche Danger on less steep. A Moderate rating is not a green light; it means triggering avalanches is still possible.

The Bridger, northern Madison and northern Gallatin Ranges:

No new snow and no recent wind-loading is allowing the snowpack to stabilize in our northern mountains. Every day without a load is another day of deflating avalanche danger. However, because buried facets underlie many slopes, it can only deflate so much and slopes with layers of weak snow topped with a denser slab could still avalanche. Yesterday, skiers on Mount Ellis found this weak snow surviving, as did Karl near Cedar Mountain. Slopes steeper than 35 degrees or any slope with a hard wind slab has a MODERATE Avalanche Danger since they are susceptible to avalanching from a human-trigger. Less steep slopes without a wind slab have a LOW Avalanche Danger.

The next advisory tomorrow morning at 7:30 a.m. If you have any snowpack or avalanche observations, drop us a line at mtavalanche@gmail.com or call us at: 406-587-6984.

Beacon Parks

The Friends of the Avalanche Center installed a Beacon Training Park outside West Yellowstone. It's located south of town on the main snowmobile trail. Stop by and do a quick practice before heading off into the mountains!

EDUCATION, EVENTS, PHOTOS, SNOWPITS, and VIDEOS

February 8: 4th Annual Montana Ale Works Wine Dinner

Come join us for a wonderful, social evening at Montana Ale Works. Menu and ticket information is here: http://bit.ly/wEg01j.

10th Annual King and Queen of the Ridge

The 10th Annual King and Queen of the Ridge Hike/Ski-a-thon fundraiser is Saturday, Feb 11th. The event supports avalanche education in southwest Montana. Collect pledges for one, two or the most Ridge hikes you can do in the five hours of competition. 100% of the proceeds go to the Friends of Gallatin National Forest Avalanche Center. Kids and families are encouraged to hike too! More Information / Registration Form.

You can help raise money two ways:

1). Get pledges and hike the ridge. You don't have to do 20 laps – you can get flat pledges and hike just once!

2). Sponsor someone. If you don't have someone to sponsor, consider sponsoring the GNFAC since we'll be hiking for dollars. Email us at mtavalanche@gmail.com with a pledge!

Go to http://bridgerbowl.com/events/view_event/81/ for more information and registration forms.

PRIZES INCLUDE: 4frnt skis, two pair of Schnee's Hunter boots, three Mystery Ranch backpacks and three pair of Oboz shoes.

1. We've recently uploaded more photos and snowpits to our web site, more than what are linked in the advisory.

2. We're creating a series of "How To…" stability test videos. So far we've got clips on performing a CT and ECT. There are located under Stability Tests on the Resources page.

3. Check out all our education programs, Click Here.

Information provided by Doug Chabot, Mark Staples, and Eric Knoff from the Gallatin National Forest Avalanche Center. For Events and Education, or Photos and Videos, please visit the Avalanche Centers Website!

If you have any snowpack or avalanche observations, drop them a line at mtavalanche@gmail.com or call: 406-587-6984.

For detailed Avalanche Terms utilized here, please see the Avalanche Glossary.