Today...Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming partly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of snow. Highs 26°F to 32°F.

Tonight...Partly cloudy with slight chance of snow in the evening... Then mostly cloudy with chance of snow after midnight. Lows 10°F to 16°F. Chance of snow 30 percent.

Friday...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow. Highs 27°F to 33°F.

Friday Night...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow. Lows 14°F to 20°F.

Saturday...Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of snow. Highs 27°F to 33°F.

Saturday Night...Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of snow. Lows 10°F to 16°F.

Sunday...Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of snow. Highs 25°F to 31°F.

Sunday Night...Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. A 30 percent chance of snow. Lows 10°F to 16°F.

Monday...Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of snow. Highs 24°F to 30°F.

Monday Night...Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of snow. Lows 7°F to 13°F.

Tuesday...Partly cloudy in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of snow. Highs 22°F to 28°F.

Tuesday Night...Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of snow. Lows 5°F to 11°F.

Wednesday...Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of snow. Highs 21°F to 27°F.

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Mountain Weather

Winds this morning were blowing 20-30 mph from the West and Northwest with temperatures in the teens Fahrenheit. Today temperatures will warm into the mid 20s Fahrenheit and winds should calm a little blowing 10-20 mph from the West and Northwest. Skies will be a mix of sun and clouds and some snow should fall tonight. By tomorrow morning, 1 to 3 inches should fall mostly in the mountains near Bozeman. Since past weather is often a better predictor of future weather than long range models, check out a comparison of Bridger Range snowfall to other low snowfall years (graph).

Snowpack and Avalanche Discussion:

The southern Madison and southern Gallatin Ranges, the Lionhead area near West Yellowstone and the mountains around Cooke City:

When the danger is rising, assessing stability is relatively easy. When the danger is decreasing it becomes more difficult especially when the snowpack contains persistent (i.e. long-lasting) layers of faceted snow. Stability can vary drastically between similar slopes and sometimes across the same slope. This variability has increased during the last week.

Yesterday, a regular observer near Cooke City descended a low angle slope with 6 feet of snow. Further down the slope where it steepened, he discovered the snowpack became 3 feet deep. It had a 2 foot thick slab resting on 1 foot of very weak depth hoar. He got off that slope as quickly as possible and felt lucky not to have triggered an avalanche. Without the stress of new snow for the last 6 days, avalanches have become more difficult to trigger, and riding in avalanche terrain requires very careful stability evaluations. Additionally, increased winds have likely formed shallow wind slabs near ridgetops. Triggering one of these fresh wind slabs could trigger a much larger avalanche. Today variable avalanche conditions exist, but overall the Avalanche Danger is rated MODERATE.

The northern Madison and Bridger Ranges:

Fewer avalanches have occurred in the mountains near Big Sky and Bozeman than mountains further south because there has been less snowfall thus less stress on the snowpack. In many places, cohesive slabs rest on weak faceted snow. While avalanches are not likely, this structure makes human triggered avalanches possible. On Cedar Mountain on Monday, Karl's stability tests did not produce unstable results but he and his partners avoided steep terrain because the snow structure made it possible to trigger an avalanche. Increased winds have likely formed shallow wind slabs near ridge tops. Today slopes steeper than 35 degrees or wind loaded slopes have a MODERATE Avalanche Danger. Less steep slopes lacking a wind load have a LOW Avalanche Danger.

The northern Gallatin Range:

In the northern Gallatin Range, especially in Hyalite Canyon, the snowpack is more stable than other areas. I found stable conditions on Elephant Mountain near Mount Blackmore on Tuesday, and many others found the same and skied many steep lines during the last week. The combination of increased winds and a few inches of powder snow has likely formed shallow wind slabs near ridgetops. These wind slabs are the primary avalanche concern making the Avalanche Danger MODERATE on wind loaded slopes steeper than 35 degrees and a LOW Avalanche Danger on all others.

The next advisory tomorrow morning at 7:30 a.m. If you have any snowpack or avalanche observations, drop us a line at mtavalanche@gmail.com or call us at: 406-587-6984.

Beacon Parks

The Friends of the Avalanche Center installed a Beacon Training Park outside West Yellowstone. It's located south of town on the main snowmobile trail. Stop by and do a quick practice before heading off into the mountains!

EDUCATION, EVENTS, PHOTOS, SNOWPITS, and VIDEOS

10th Annual King and Queen of the Ridge

The 10th Annual King and Queen of the Ridge Hike/Ski-a-thon fundraiser is Saturday, Feb 11th. The event supports avalanche education in southwest Montana. Collect pledges for one, two or the most Ridge hikes you can do in the five hours of competition. 100% of the proceeds go to the Friends of Gallatin National Forest Avalanche Center. Kids and families are encouraged to hike too! More Information / Registration Form.

You can help raise money two ways:

1). Get pledges and hike the ridge. You don't have to do 20 laps – you can get flat pledges and hike just once!

2). Sponsor someone. If you don't have someone to sponsor, consider sponsoring the GNFAC since we'll be hiking for dollars. Email us at mtavalanche@gmail.com with a pledge!

Go to http://bridgerbowl.com/events/view_event/81/ for more information and registration forms.

PRIZES INCLUDE: 4frnt skis, two pair of Schnee's Hunter boots, three Mystery Ranch backpacks and three pair of Oboz shoes.

1. We've recently uploaded more photos and snowpits to our web site, more than what are linked in the advisory.

2. We're creating a series of "How To…" stability test videos. So far we've got clips on performing a CT and ECT. There are located under Stability Tests on the Resources page.

3. Check out all our education programs, Click Here.

Information provided by Doug Chabot, Mark Staples, and Eric Knoff from the Gallatin National Forest Avalanche Center. For Events and Education, or Photos and Videos, please visit the Avalanche Centers Website!

If you have any snowpack or avalanche observations, drop them a line at mtavalanche@gmail.com or call: 406-587-6984.

For detailed Avalanche Terms utilized here, please see the Avalanche Glossary.