Today...Snow. Snow accumulation of 2 to 3 inches. Highs 26°F to 32°F. West winds around 15 mph late in the afternoon. Chance of snow 80 percent.

Tonight...Snow likely. Snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches. Total snow accumulation 3 to 6 inches. Lows 15°F to 21°F. West winds around 15 mph early in the evening. Chance of snow 70 percent.

Saturday...Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow. Highs 28°F to 34°F.

Saturday Night...Cloudy. Chance of snow in the evening...then slight chance of snow after midnight. Lows 12°F to 18°F. Chance of snow 50 percent.

Sunday...Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of snow in the morning...then chance of snow in the afternoon. Highs 27°F to 33°F. Chance of snow 30 percent.

Sunday Night...Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. A 30 percent chance of snow. Lows 11°F to 17°F.

Monday...Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of snow. Highs 25°F to 31°F.

Monday Night...Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of snow. Lows 7°F to 13°F.

Tuesday...Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of snow. Highs 24°F to 30°F.

Tuesday Night...Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of snow. Lows 6°F to 12°F.

Wednesday...Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of snow. Highs 22°F to 28°F.

Wednesday Night...Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of snow. Lows 5°F to 11°F.

Thursday...Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of snow. Highs 22°F to 28°F.

 Hazardous Weather  Gibbon Falls Forecast  Mammoth Forecast  Midway Forecast  Norris Forecast  Old Faithful Forecast 

Mountain Weather

Early yesterday most places received a dusting of snow. Near Cooke City 2 to 3 inches of snow fell with amounts up to 6 inches reported at higher elevations. Winds have been generally calm, blowing 10-15 mph this morning from the western half of the compass with some gusts in the 20's. Temperatures were in the high teens Fahrenheit and should climb into the mid 20s Fahrenheit today. Winds shouldn't change much and snowfall today will produce 2 to 4 inches by tomorrow morning. The weather pattern for the next few days looks promising with calm winds and light snowfall that could slowly improve skiing and riding conditions.

Snowpack and Avalanche Discussion:

The southern Madison and southern Gallatin Ranges, the Lionhead area near West Yellowstone and the mountains around Cooke City:

Now is a tough time. The snowpack has demonstrated its ability to produce avalanches including one seen yesterday in Sheep Creek near Cooke City, but avalanche activity has subsided after nearly a week with no new snow.

• The tricky part: The odds of triggering an avalanche vary from slope to slope especially near Cooke City. Some slopes will be covered with tracks while others may produce an avalanche.

• Scary situation: The snowpack has a history of producing avalanches after receiving just a few inches of new snow.

•Two basic snowpack structures: In one case a supportable slab rests on weak facets in the middle of the snowpack. In the other a supportable slab rests on weak depth hoar closer to the ground. In both cases, triggering an avalanche usually requires finding a spot where the slab is slightly thinner and you can impact the weak layer. These spots can be near the bottom of a slope, on the edges of a slope, or even in the middle near rocks or trees.

The snowpack has been teetering near its breaking point. With a little snow yesterday and a little more coming today, it's a good time to be conservative. The odds of triggering an avalanche are difficult to assess, but we know these are dangerous avalanche conditions requiring careful stability evaluations and conservative decisions. For today, the Avalanche Danger is CONSIDERABLE on slopes steeper than 35 degrees and a MODERATE Avalanche Danger on less steep slopes.

The northern Madison and Bridger Ranges:

The primary reason the avalanche danger is lower in the northern Madison Range and the Bridger Range is that these areas have received less snow in recent weeks. With less snow there have been fewer avalanches. Unfortunately most slopes have a slab of snow (usually 1 to 2 feet thick) resting on small, near surface facets which rest on depth hoar. See Doug's video last week from Saddle Peak which is still relevant today. On Monday on Cedar Mountain near Big Sky, Karl and his partners avoided steep terrain even though they got stable results in stability tests. We don't base decisions entirely on stability tests, and they made decisions based on the snowpack structure. This structure remains unchanged, and human triggered avalanches are possible. For today, the Avalanche Danger is MODERATE on slopes steeper than 35 degrees and a LOW Avalanche Danger on less steep slopes.

The northern Gallatin Range:

In the northern Gallatin Range, especially in Hyalite Canyon, there has been little snow in the last week and the snowpack is generally stronger. I found stable conditions on Elephant Mountain near Mount Blackmore on Tuesday. Many others found the same and skied steep lines during the last week. Isolated spots may have shallow, unstable wind slabs; otherwise generally safe avalanche conditions exist and the Avalanche Danger is LOW.

The next advisory tomorrow morning at 7:30 a.m. If you have any snowpack or avalanche observations, drop us a line at mtavalanche@gmail.com or call us at: 406-587-6984.

Beacon Parks

The Friends of the Avalanche Center installed a Beacon Training Park outside West Yellowstone. It's located south of town on the main snowmobile trail. Stop by and do a quick practice before heading off into the mountains!

EDUCATION, EVENTS, PHOTOS, SNOWPITS, and VIDEOS

10th Annual King and Queen of the Ridge

The 10th Annual King and Queen of the Ridge Hike/Ski-a-thon fundraiser is Saturday, Feb 11th. The event supports avalanche education in southwest Montana. Collect pledges for one, two or the most Ridge hikes you can do in the five hours of competition. 100% of the proceeds go to the Friends of Gallatin National Forest Avalanche Center. Kids and families are encouraged to hike too! More Information / Registration Form.

You can help raise money two ways:

1). Get pledges and hike the ridge. You don't have to do 20 laps – you can get flat pledges and hike just once!

2). Sponsor someone. If you don't have someone to sponsor, consider sponsoring the GNFAC since we'll be hiking for dollars. Email us at mtavalanche@gmail.com with a pledge!

Go to http://bridgerbowl.com/events/view_event/81/ for more information and registration forms.

PRIZES INCLUDE: 4frnt skis, two pair of Schnee's Hunter boots, three Mystery Ranch backpacks and three pair of Oboz shoes.

1. We've recently uploaded more photos and snowpits to our web site, more than what are linked in the advisory.

2. We're creating a series of "How To…" stability test videos. So far we've got clips on performing a CT and ECT. There are located under Stability Tests on the Resources page.

3. Check out all our education programs, Click Here.

Information provided by Doug Chabot, Mark Staples, and Eric Knoff from the Gallatin National Forest Avalanche Center. For Events and Education, or Photos and Videos, please visit the Avalanche Centers Website!

If you have any snowpack or avalanche observations, drop them a line at mtavalanche@gmail.com or call: 406-587-6984.

For detailed Avalanche Terms utilized here, please see the Avalanche Glossary.