Rest Of Today...Chance of snow early in the morning...then snow in the afternoon. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches. Total snow accumulation 1 to 3 inches. West winds around 15 mph late in the afternoon. Chance of snow near 100 percent. Highs 24°F to 30°F.

Tonight...Breezy. Cloudy with a 20 percent chance of snow. Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph. Lows 6°F to 12°F.

Wednesday...Breezy. Snow likely in the morning...then snow in the afternoon. Snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches. Southwest winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of snow 90 percent. Highs 22°F to 28°F.

Wednesday Night...Breezy. Snow in the evening...then snow likely after midnight. Snow accumulation of 2 to 3 inches. Southwest winds 20 to 25 mph decreasing to around 15 mph after midnight. Chance of snow near 100 percent. Lows 4°F to 10°F.

Thursday / March 1st...Snow likely. Snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches. Total snow accumulation 5 to 9 inches. West winds around 15 mph. Chance of snow 70 percent. Highs 19°F to 25°F.

Thursday Night...Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow in the evening... Then slight chance of snow after midnight. Chance of snow 50 percent. Lows -1°F to 5°F. Wind chill readings -11°F to -21°F.

Friday...Breezy. Partly cloudy in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. A 40 percent chance of snow. Highs 17°F to 23°F. Wind chill readings -11°F to -21°F.

Friday Night...Breezy. Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow. Lows 5°F to 11°F.

Saturday...Breezy. Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow. Highs 24°F to 30°F.

Saturday Night...Breezy. Mostly cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow. Lows 11°F to 17°F.

Sunday...Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of snow. Highs 29°F to 35°F.

Sunday Night...Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of snow. Lows 8°F to 14°F.

Monday...Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of snow. Highs 29°F to 35°F.

 Hazardous Weather  Gibbon Falls Forecast  Mammoth Forecast  Midway Forecast  Norris Forecast  Old Faithful Forecast 

Mountain Weather

In the last 24 hours a trace to one inch of snow fell in the southern mountains. Temperatures are near 10 degrees Fahrenheit and east winds are light at 5-10 mph. Today will be cloudy with snow showers near West Yellowstone and Cooke City while the rest of our area enjoys mostly sunny skies. Winds will shift to the northwest today, but remain light as temperatures rise into the high teens Fahrenheit. By morning I expect 2 to 3 inches in the southern mountains.

Snowpack and Avalanche Discussion:

The Bridger Range, the Madison and Gallatin Ranges, the Lionhead area near West Yellowstone and the mountains around Cooke City:

As days pass without substantial loading, triggering avalanches becomes more difficult even though the weak layer can still fracture. Center-punching a big line is still risky business and might be for the rest of the season. We are seeing skiers nibble around the edges of big avalanche paths and get away with it. Don't confuse "getting away with it" with stability. Many folks skied off the summit of Saddle Peak on Friday without any problems. They got away with it. Yet only eight inches of snow on Saturday was enough to rip out the slope that night. And let's not forget that a skier took the ride of her life on Friday when she triggered a large slide off the south summit of Saddle during the same time that folks were getting away with skiing lines a few hundred yards away. Stability assessment was not terribly tricky then, but it's becoming more so now.

Eric, Karl and I toured near Hebgen Lake yesterday. Other skiers in this area had widespread collapsing and cracking on Saturday, but we only found it in a few localized spots. Our stability tests are propagating cracks and taking more force to break with each passing day, yet there are a few facts we should not forget:

1. Cracking or collapsing indicates slopes are dangerously close to avalanching.

2. Our mountains have a widespread weak layer of small facets buried 1.5 to 3 feet deep that were responsible for much of the recent avalanche activity.

3. Avalanches may also break at the ground since many slopes have large, weak grains of depth hoar at its base. Examples of this include Saddle Peak, the south side of Bradley Meadow and Wolverine Bowl in the Bridger Range.

4. Just two days ago a skier remotely triggered an avalanche on a slope less than 35 degrees north of Big Sky; scary stuff. And yesterday Moonlight Basin Ski Patrol noted a large slide on the northeast flank of Cedar Mountain.

5. Natural activity is still being spotted around Cooke City.

Eric summed up our thoughts about the buried facets in yesterday's video when he said, "We definitely do not trust it". We are remaining conservative and staying out of avalanche terrain. We are on the backside of an avalanche cycle and instability is less obvious. This is the time we can get surprised. Given the widespread weak layer, recent avalanche activity and cracking/collapsing, I'm rating the Avalanche Danger CONSIDERABLE on all slopes today.

* * ADDITIONAL INFORMATION * *

The accident reports for the avalanche fatality near Cooke City and the slide on Saddle Peak are now available. See links below.

http://www.mtavalanche.com/sites/default/files/Saddle%20Peak%20Accident_Public.pdf

http://www.mtavalanche.com/sites/default/files/Daisy%20Pass%20Avalanche%20Public.pdf

Also, another avalanche fatality occurred on Saturday near Marias Pass outside of Glacier National Park. This makes the third avalanche fatality to hit Montana in the past week and raises the total number of avalanche fatalities in the United States to 21.

The next advisory tomorrow morning at 7:30 a.m. If you have any snowpack or avalanche observations, drop us a line at mtavalanche@gmail.com or call us at: 406-587-6984.

For Photos, Videos and More Detailed Information related to this report, Please Visit the Gallatin National Forest Avalanche Center.

~ EVENT ~

31st Annual Pinhead Classic

Come to Bridger Bowl on Saturday, March 17th (Saint Patrick's Day) with telemark skis, AT skis, alpine skis, snowboards, split boards, or even snow blades. The theme is Snowpocalypse based on the wildly popular Mayan 2012 apocalypse. $30 gets you into the races, a pint glass, t-shirt, a good time, a raffle ticket, and food by Cafe Fresco. Pre-register at Mystery Ranch or Grizzly Ridge: March 11-16. Visit http://pinheadclassic.com/ or the Pinhead Facebook Page for more info.

Beacon Parks

The Friends of the Avalanche Center installed a Beacon Training Park outside West Yellowstone. It's located south of town on the main snowmobile trail. Stop by and do a quick practice before heading off into the mountains!

EDUCATION, EVENTS, PHOTOS, SNOWPITS, and VIDEOS

1. We've recently uploaded more photos and snowpits to our web site, more than what are linked in the advisory.

2. We're creating a series of "How To…" stability test videos. So far we've got clips on performing a CT and ECT. There are located under Stability Tests on the Resources page.

3. Check out all our education programs, Click Here.

Information provided by Doug Chabot, Mark Staples, and Eric Knoff from the Gallatin National Forest Avalanche Center. For Events and Education, or Photos and Videos, please visit the Avalanche Centers Website!

If you have any snowpack or avalanche observations, drop them a line at mtavalanche@gmail.com or call: 406-587-6984.

For detailed Avalanche Terms utilized here, please see the Avalanche Glossary.