Today...Breezy. Snow likely. Snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches. Total snow accumulation 1 to 3 inches. Highs 26°F to 32°F. Southwest winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of snow 70 percent.

Tonight...Breezy. Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow. Lows 16°F to 22°F. Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph with gusts to around 35 mph.

Thursday...Breezy. Snow likely. Snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches. Highs 26°F to 32°F. Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of snow 70 percent.

Thursday Night...Colder...cloudy. Snow likely in the evening...then chance of snow after midnight. Snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches. Total snow accumulation 3 to 6 inches. Lows 6°F to 12°F. Southwest winds around 15 mph in the evening. Chance of snow 70 percent.

Friday...Partly cloudy. Highs 17°F to 23°F. West winds around 15 mph in the afternoon.

Friday Night...Partly cloudy. Lows 1°F to 7°F.

Saturday...Partly cloudy in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. Highs 20°F to 26°F.

Saturday Night...Partly cloudy. Lows 5°F to 11°F.

Sunday...Partly cloudy in the morning then becoming mostly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of snow. Highs 26°F to 32°F.

Sunday Night...Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of snow. Lows 10°F to 16°F.

Monday...Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of snow. Highs 24°F to 30°F.

Monday Night...Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of snow. Lows 8°F to 14°F.

Tuesday...Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of snow. Highs 24°F to 30°F.

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Mountain Weather

In the last 24 hours mountain temperatures have risen to 20 degrees Fahrenheit with strong westerly winds blowing 25-30 mph and gusts over 50 mph. Scattered snow showers dusted the Bridger Range and dropped 1 to 2 inches everywhere else. Continued showers today and tonight will drop 2 to 4 inches favoring the southern areas. Winds will remain strong and temperatures will hover near 20 degrees Fahrenheit. Tomorrow looks to be the snowiest day of the week.

Snowpack and Avalanche Discussion:

The southern Madison and southern Gallatin Ranges, Lionhead area near West Yellowstone and mountains around Cooke City:

The southern mountains, including Cooke City and the Lionhead area, have serious stability concerns. Mark and Karl were in Lionhead yesterday. Avalanches from the weekend were numerous; however, what gave them pause was a large, fresh, natural avalanche that broke with only two inches of new snow. They dutifully dug snowpits, but found inconsistent results in their stability tests. No matter, recent avalanches provided the bulls-eye information they were looking for. The snowpack is weak and unsupportable. Carving a turn would easily sink the track down into the facets. Foot penetration was to the ground. A skier in the Bacon Rind area commented it was easy to investigate the snowpack when it's at chest level. Snow during the past week has created slabs and increased stress. A few collapses and poor stability test results were all he needed to stick to sub 30-degree slopes.

The Cooke City area has gotten snow nine out of the last ten days. Natural avalanches and many human triggered slides, some triggered from afar, partially buried snowmobilers on Saturday and again on Monday. Remote triggering is scary stuff since we can release avalanches from flat terrain, hundreds of feet below the starting zone. Seeing natural avalanches in Lionhead after a paltry two inch snowstorm, plus remote triggering in Cooke City is conclusive evidence that the Avalanche Danger is rated CONSIDERABLE on all slopes today.

The Bridger, northern Madison and northern Gallatin Ranges:

The snowpack in the mountains around Bozeman and Big Sky is weak, but not terribly unstable. Digging out large, faceted grains in my snowpits remind me of playing in a sandbox. Although winds have blown the foot of new snow from this weekend around, these fresh slabs have not created widespread instability. Eric was on Buck Ridge yesterday and did not see any new avalanche activity. In Beehive/Bear Basin on Sunday I found the snowpack to still break near the ground on facets, but it took quite a bit of force and was not breaking immediately under the new snow, which is where avalanches on Friday were releasing. As long as there are buried facets breaking in my stability tests I'm treating the snowpack with extra respect. Today, the Avalanche Danger is rated MODERATE on all slopes since it's possible to trigger a slide, especially on fresh wind slabs.

The next advisory tomorrow morning at 7:30 a.m. If you have any snowpack or avalanche observations, drop us a line at mtavalanche@gmail.com or call us at: 406-587-6984.

Beacon Parks

The Friends of the Avalanche Center installed a Beacon Training Park outside West Yellowstone last Friday. It's located south of town on the main snowmobile trail. Stop by and do a quick practice before heading off into the mountains!

EDUCATION, EVENTS, PHOTOS, SNOWPITS, and VIDEOS

1. We've recently uploaded more photos and snowpits to our web site, more than what are linked in the advisory.

2. We're creating a series of "How To…" stability test videos. So far we've got clips on performing a CT and ECT. There are located under Stability Tests on the Resources page.

3. Check out all our education programs, Click Here.

Information provided by Doug Chabot, Mark Staples, and Eric Knoff from the Gallatin National Forest Avalanche Center. For Events and Education, or Photos and Videos, please visit the Avalanche Centers Website!

If you have any snowpack or avalanche observations, drop them a line at mtavalanche@gmail.com or call: 406-587-6984.

For detailed Avalanche Terms utilized here, please see the Avalanche Glossary.