Today...Breezy. Partly cloudy in the morning then becoming cloudy. A 20 percent chance of snow. Highs 18°F to 24°F. Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph. Lowest wind chill readings -12°F to -22°F in the morning.

Tonight...Breezy. Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow. Lows 7°F to 13°F. Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph.

Sunday...Breezy. Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow. Highs 25°F to 31°F. Southwest winds 15 to 25 mph.

Sunday Night...Breezy. Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow. Lows 12°F to 18°F. Southwest winds 15 to 25 mph.

Monday...Breezy. Snow likely in the morning...then snow in the afternoon. Snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches. Highs 24°F to 30°F. Southwest winds 15 to 25 mph. Chance of snow 90 percent.

Monday Night...Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow showers. Lows 11°F to 17°F.

Tuesday...Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming partly cloudy. A 20 percent chance of snow. Highs 23°F to 29°F.

Tuesday Night...Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of snow. Lows 11°F to 17°F.

Wednesday...Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of snow. Highs 25°F to 31°F.

Wednesday Night...Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of snow. Lows 11°F to 17°F.

Thursday...Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of snow. Highs 28°F to 34°F.

Thursday Night...Partly cloudy. Lows 11°F to 17°F.

Friday...Partly cloudy in the morning then clearing. Highs 27°F to 33°F.

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Mountain Weather

No snow fell overnight and this morning temperatures were in the single digits Fahrenheit with winds blowing 30-50 mph from the West and Southwest. Clouds will move over the area today and temperatures should warm into the teens and low 20's Fahrenheit. Westerly winds will blow 15-35 mph. A few snowflakes may fall late today but not accumulate.

Snowpack and Avalanche Discussion:

The southern Madison and southern Gallatin Ranges, the Lionhead area near West Yellowstone, and the mountains around Cooke City:

The weakest and most unstable snowpack exists near West Yellowstone. On all slopes, the bottom half of the snowpack contains weak facets which will be evident when you step off your sled or out of your skis and sink to the ground. Unfortunately this situation will not change any time soon. Without any new snow, natural avalanche activity has subsided, but human triggered avalanches remain likely.

Near Cooke City conditions are more variable. South facing slopes have an ice crust with weak facets on it buried 2 to 3 feet deep. Many North facing slopes have similar faceted layers but lack the ice crust; however, some North facing slopes have a relatively strong and stable snowpack. Yesterday just south of Silver Gate, a natural avalanche was observed, a clear sign that unstable conditions persist. Decision making can be difficult if you see tracks on a slope, but tracks are not a reliable sign of stability.

Storms during the last two weeks deposited a slab of cohesive snow on top of weak snow on most slopes and conditions are ripe for human triggered avalanches. Today the Avalanche Danger is CONSIDERABLE.

The Bridger, northern Madison and northern Gallatin Ranges:

Near Big Sky and Bozeman, a wide range of conditions exist.

 •  The Bridger Range has a very weak snowpack capped by hard wind slabs in places. Without the stress of new snow in this area, avalanches will be difficult to trigger.

 •  Yesterday on Mt. Ellis, Eric found plenty of weak snow but no slab or load to make it unstable.

 •  In Hyalite the snowpack is strong on most slopes.

 •  Two days ago on Yellow Mountain near Big Sky, Eric and I found a weak layer of facets on a crust about 1 foot deep on South aspects, lots of weak facets in the bottom half of the snowpack on North aspects, and I triggered an avalanche in a steep, wind loaded pocket.

 •  Yesterday skiers in Middle Basin found a slope with a deep and strong snowpack.

Some slopes have strong snow. Some slopes have weak snow. What it will take to get an avalanche is the load (ie - the stress) from wind deposited snow. With very strong winds recently, certain terrain features will have an unstable combination of weak snow and a wind load. For these reasons, human triggered avalanches are definitely possible today and the Avalanche Danger is MODERATE.

Special Note: Today Seth Meyer would like to ask his girlfriend Kirsten Drake to marry him. If you see them out skiing, wish Seth good luck and hope she says yes.

The next advisory tomorrow morning at 7:30 a.m. If you have any snowpack or avalanche observations, drop us a line at mtavalanche@gmail.com or call us at: 406-587-6984.

Beacon Parks

The Friends of the Avalanche Center installed a Beacon Training Park outside West Yellowstone. It's located south of town on the main snowmobile trail. Stop by and do a quick practice before heading off into the mountains!

EDUCATION, EVENTS, PHOTOS, SNOWPITS, and VIDEOS

1. We've recently uploaded more photos and snowpits to our web site, more than what are linked in the advisory.

2. We're creating a series of "How To…" stability test videos. So far we've got clips on performing a CT and ECT. There are located under Stability Tests on the Resources page.

3. Check out all our education programs, Click Here.

Information provided by Doug Chabot, Mark Staples, and Eric Knoff from the Gallatin National Forest Avalanche Center. For Events and Education, or Photos and Videos, please visit the Avalanche Centers Website!

If you have any snowpack or avalanche observations, drop them a line at mtavalanche@gmail.com or call: 406-587-6984.

For detailed Avalanche Terms utilized here, please see the Avalanche Glossary.