Today: Snow likely. Breezy, with a west southwest wind between 18 and 22 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Cloudy, with a high near 28°F. Wind chill values as low as -10°F.

Tonight: Snow likely, mainly before 11:00 pm. Breezy, with a west southwest wind between 17 and 22 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 18°F.

Sunday: A 20% chance of snow. West southwest wind between 13 and 16 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Mostly sunny, with a high near 32°F.

Sunday Night: Southwest wind between 11 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Partly cloudy, with a low around 14°F. Wind chill values as low as 0°F.

Monday: Breezy, with a southwest wind between 13 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Mostly sunny, with a high near 34°F.

Monday Night: A 40% chance of snow, mainly after 11:00 pm. Southwest wind around 17 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 20°F.

Tuesday: A 50% chance of snow. West southwest wind around 15 mph. Cloudy, with a high near 27°F.

Tuesday Night: A 40% chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around -1°F.

Wednesday: A 20% chance of snow. Partly sunny, with a high near 22°F.

Wednesday Night: Mostly cloudy, with a low around 4°F.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 29°F.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 7°F.

Friday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 33°F.

 Hazardous Weather  Gibbon Falls Forecast  Mammoth Forecast  Midway Forecast  Norris Forecast  Old Faithful Forecast 

Mountain Weather

Over the past 24 hours the Bridger Range picked up 15 to 18 inches of low density snow while the rest of our advisory area picked up 4 to 6 inches. Winds are currently blowing 20-30 mph out of the West-northwest with gusts reaching into the 40s at Big Sky and Hyalite. Mountain temperatures are in the single digits to low teens Fahrenheit. Today, winds will continue to blow 20-30 out of the West-northwest and temperatures will warm into the upper 20s Fahrenheit. Snow showers will continue through the morning hours with additional accumulations of 3 to 5 inches possible by this afternoon. Skies will become partly cloudy by this evening and dry conditions will exist through tomorrow.

Snowpack and Avalanche Discussion:

The Bridger Range:

Over the past few weeks the Bridger Range has gone from worst to first in terms of snowfall. A favorable northwest flow has provided consistent moisture which has produced respectable snowfall amounts. Over the past 24 hours close to a foot and a half of low density snow has been recorded at the top of the Bridger Lift. This latest round of snow has been accompanied by strong west-northwest winds, which has easily transported the new snow onto leeward slopes.

Today's primary avalanche concern for the Bridger Range will be any slope that has received a wind load. Although freshly formed wind slabs will be most pronounced along exposed ridgelines, drifts of windblown snow will also be common on the lee side of mid elevation sub-ridges. With more snow and wind forecasted through today, natural avalanches will be likely and human triggered avalanches will be very likely on all wind loaded slopes.

A secondary concern for the Bridger Range will be avalanches failing on faceted layers buried deeper in the pack. Slides initiating within the storm snow and stepping down will be the most likely cause for this type of event. Although the chances of a slide stepping down are becoming less over time, any slide that does step down will likely produce a large and unmanageable avalanche.

Today, the Avalanche Danger is rated HIGH on all wind loaded slopes and slopes steeper than 35 degrees. Less steep, non wind loaded slopes have a CONSIDERABLE Avalanche Danger.

The Madison and Gallatin Ranges, the mountains around Cooke City and the Lionhead area near West Yellowstone:

Yesterday I toured into the Lionhead area and was encouraged by the lack of avalanche activity. Although this area received close a foot of snow over the past few days we experienced very few signs of instability. We did receive unstable results during stability tests, but it took hard force to get columns to propagate (video). Snowmobilers in Cabin Creek and Tepee basing in the southern Madison Range got similar results. Doug also found stability to be improving in the mountains around Cooke City on Thursday (photo).

Although buried faceted layers appear to be gaining strength, new snow and strong winds will keep the snowpack on edge. Wind loaded slopes will be today's primary avalanche concern. Strong winds out of the west/northwest will make slopes on the east half of the compass most prone to wind slab development.

Yesterday, skiers on Mount Wheeler in the northern Gallatin Range experienced widespread cracking and collapsing on wind loaded slopes and a skier in Hyalite got "three scary collapses" on east facing slopes around 8,800 feet. A snowmobiler also triggered a large slide near Buck Ridge this past Wednesday, also on a wind loaded slope (photo).

Although avalanche activity will likely stay confined to the new snow, there is the possibility of avalanches failing on a layer of near surface facets buried 2 to 3 feet deep. This layer is becoming less active but should not be ignored.

Today, new snow and strong winds will create very dangerous avalanches conditions on wind loaded slopes steeper than 35 degrees which have a HIGH Avalanche Danger. All other slopes have a CONSIDERABLE Avalanche Danger.

* * Accident Report * *

The accident reports for the avalanche fatality near Cooke City and the slide on Saddle Peak are now available. See this link.

* * * Last Saturday Francis Skierka from Cut Bank, Montana died in an avalanche in northwestern Montana near Marias Pass. Sadly his wife, Andrea, is pregnant and due in two months. A memorial fund to help Andrea and her baby has been established: The Francis Skierka Family Memorial, Stockman Bank, 125 West Main, Cut Bank MT 59427, 406-873-9400. * * *

The next advisory tomorrow morning at 7:30 a.m. If you have any snowpack or avalanche observations, drop us a line at mtavalanche@gmail.com or call us at: 406-587-6984.

For Photos, Videos and More Detailed Information related to this report, Please Visit the Gallatin National Forest Avalanche Center.

~ EVENT ~

31st Annual Pinhead Classic

Come to Bridger Bowl on Saturday, March 17th (Saint Patrick's Day) with telemark skis, AT skis, alpine skis, snowboards, split boards, or even snow blades. The theme is Snowpocalypse based on the wildly popular Mayan 2012 apocalypse. $30 gets you into the races, a pint glass, t-shirt, a good time, a raffle ticket, and food by Cafe Fresco. Pre-register at Mystery Ranch or Grizzly Ridge: March 11-16. Visit http://pinheadclassic.com/ or the Pinhead Facebook Page for more info.

Beacon Parks

The Friends of the Avalanche Center installed a Beacon Training Park outside West Yellowstone. It's located south of town on the main snowmobile trail. Stop by and do a quick practice before heading off into the mountains!

EDUCATION, EVENTS, PHOTOS, SNOWPITS, and VIDEOS

1. We've recently uploaded more photos and snowpits to our web site, more than what are linked in the advisory.

2. We're creating a series of "How To…" stability test videos. So far we've got clips on performing a CT and ECT. There are located under Stability Tests on the Resources page.

3. Check out all our education programs, Click Here.

Information provided by Doug Chabot, Mark Staples, and Eric Knoff from the Gallatin National Forest Avalanche Center. For Events and Education, or Photos and Videos, please visit the Avalanche Centers Website!

If you have any snowpack or avalanche observations, drop them a line at mtavalanche@gmail.com or call: 406-587-6984.

For detailed Avalanche Terms utilized here, please see the Avalanche Glossary.