Today: Southwest wind around 11 mph. Sunny, with a high near 40°F.

Tonight: Southwest wind around 11 mph. Partly cloudy, with a low around 13°F. Wind chill values as low as 0°F.

Sunday: A 20% chance of snow after 11:00 am. South southwest wind between 13 and 17 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Partly sunny, with a high near 36°F. Wind chill values as low as 0°F.

Sunday Night: A 50% chance of snow. Breezy, with a southwest wind between 15 and 21 mph. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. Cloudy, with a low around 18°F.

Monday: A 50% chance of snow. Southwest wind between 10 and 17 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 34°F.

Monday Night: A 40% chance of snow. Southwest wind around 14 mph. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 20°F.

Tuesday: Snow showers likely before 11:00 am, then rain and snow showers likely. Southwest wind around 16 mph, with gusts as high as 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Cloudy, with a high near 40°F.

Tuesday Night: Snow showers likely. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23°F.

Wednesday: A chance of rain and snow showers. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 39°F.

Wednesday Night: A 40% chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 22°F.

Thursday: A slight chance of rain and snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 43°F.

Thursday Night: A slight chance of snow showers. Partly cloudy, with a low around 24°F.

Friday: A slight chance of rain and snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 42°F.

 Hazardous Weather  Gibbon Falls Forecast  Mammoth Forecast  Midway Forecast  Norris Forecast  Old Faithful Forecast 

Mountain Weather

High pressure continues to dominate the weather pattern. At 4:00 am this morning mountain temperatures are ranging between the high twenties to low thirties Fahrenheit in the north and low to mid-twenties Fahrenheit in the south. Winds are blowing 10-20 mph out of the West-southwest and skies are clear. Today, temperatures will warm into the high thirties to low forties Fahrenheit in the north and low to mid thirties Fahrenheit in the south. Winds will continue to blow 15-25 mph out of the West-southwest. Warm and dry conditions will prevail through the weekend.

Snowpack and Avalanche Discussion:

Wet Snow Avalanche Danger

With air temperatures expected to rise well above freezing today, the danger of wet snow Avalanche Danger could rise to CONSIDERABLE by this afternoon on sun exposed slopes. The snowpack should give warning signs in the form of pinwheels and point releases. Slopes displaying these signs of instability should be avoided.

The Madison and Gallatin Ranges, the mountains around Cooke City, the Lionhead area near West Yellowstone and the Bridger Range:

Right as winter appeared to be getting a foothold, the all too familiar dry spell has once again elbowed its way back in. We are now entering the fourth day without new snow in southwest Montana, which is not helping powderhounds but is helping the snowpack slowly trend towards stability. As the snowpack adjusts, obvious signs of instability and the potential for triggering an avalanche will gradually decrease. Even though avalanches will become harder to trigger, the presence of persistent weak layers will continue to make human triggered avalanches possible.

Over the past week numerous natural and human triggered avalanches have occurred throughout our advisory area. Yesterday, snow rangers near Cooke City observed multiple slides that took place over the past few days (photo). Also, skiers near Big Sky viewed a large slide on Fan Mountain (photo) and on Thursday skiers near the Yellowstone Club experienced cracking and collapsing and got unstable results during stability test.

Most slides have occurred on slopes that received a heavy wind load earlier in the week (photo); however, some slides have failed on non-wind loaded slopes (video). Our primary concern is a weak, faceted layer buried in mid-February. This layer is now buried 2 to 4 feet deep and is the culprit for much of the recent activity. Slides that initiate on this layer could potentially step down to faceted layers near the ground. Slopes located in steep rocky terrain or directly below ridgelines will be likely areas to trigger a slide.

The latest round of avalanche activity combined with the presence of buried persistent weak layers continues to highlight the need to objectively evaluate each slope we choose to ride. Digging holes and conducting stability tests such as the ECT are a great way to evaluate the snowpack structure and the relationship between layers.

Today, riding in avalanche terrain will be like approaching a yellow light – You have to observe you surroundings carefully before going for it. If the decision is made to proceed, remember there is always a chance of being unexpectedly broadsided.

Today, heightened avalanche conditions exist on specific terrain features and the Avalanche Danger is rated MODERATE.

   Recent avalanche in Utah   

A snowmobiler was caught and buried in an avalanche in Utah on Sunday. He was not wearing a beacon and was buried for about 20 minutes. He was incredibly lucky. Few people buried this long survive. Also, notice a recent avalanche on the adjacent slope. Recent avalanches are clear signs of unstable conditions: http://vimeo.com/38078462.

* * Accident Report * *

The accident reports for the avalanche fatality near Cooke City and the slide on Saddle Peak are now available. See this link.

* * * Last Saturday Francis Skierka from Cut Bank, Montana died in an avalanche in northwestern Montana near Marias Pass. Sadly his wife, Andrea, is pregnant and due in two months. A memorial fund to help Andrea and her baby has been established: The Francis Skierka Family Memorial, Stockman Bank, 125 West Main, Cut Bank MT 59427, 406-873-9400. * * *

The next advisory tomorrow morning at 7:30 a.m. If you have any snowpack or avalanche observations, drop us a line at mtavalanche@gmail.com or call us at: 406-587-6984.

For Audio, Photos, Videos, and More Detailed Information related to this report, Please Visit the Gallatin National Forest Avalanche Center.

~ EVENT ~

31st Annual Pinhead Classic

Come to Bridger Bowl on Saturday, March 17th (Saint Patrick's Day) with telemark skis, AT skis, alpine skis, snowboards, split boards, or even snow blades. The theme is Snowpocalypse based on the wildly popular Mayan 2012 apocalypse. $30 gets you into the races, a pint glass, t-shirt, a good time, a raffle ticket, and food by Cafe Fresco. Pre-register at Mystery Ranch or Grizzly Ridge: March 11-16. Visit http://pinheadclassic.com/ or the Pinhead Facebook Page for more info.

Beacon Parks

The Friends of the Avalanche Center installed a Beacon Training Park outside West Yellowstone. It's located south of town on the main snowmobile trail. Stop by and do a quick practice before heading off into the mountains!

EDUCATION, EVENTS, PHOTOS, SNOWPITS, and VIDEOS

1. We've recently uploaded more photos and snowpits to our web site, more than what are linked in the advisory.

2. We're creating a series of "How To…" stability test videos. So far we've got clips on performing a CT and ECT. There are located under Stability Tests on the Resources page.

3. Check out all our education programs, Click Here.

Information provided by Doug Chabot, Mark Staples, and Eric Knoff from the Gallatin National Forest Avalanche Center. For Events and Education, or Photos and Videos, please visit the Avalanche Centers Website!

If you have any snowpack or avalanche observations, drop them a line at mtavalanche@gmail.com or call: 406-587-6984.

For detailed Avalanche Terms utilized here, please see the Avalanche Glossary.