Today: A slight chance of rain and snow after noon. Breezy, with a southwest wind between 14 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 26 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Partly sunny, with a high near 41°F. Wind chill values as low as 0°F.

Tonight: A 50% chance of snow. Breezy, with a west southwest wind between 20 and 23 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Cloudy, with a low around 22°F.

Monday: A chance of snow before noon, then a chance of rain and snow. Breezy, with a southwest wind between 18 and 24 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 38°F.

Monday Night: A 20% chance of snow. Breezy, with a southwest wind between 21 and 23 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23°F.

Tuesday: A chance of snow before noon, then a chance of rain and snow. Breezy, with a southwest wind between 20 and 22 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Cloudy, with a high near 40°F.

Tuesday Night: A 50% chance of snow. Southwest wind between 15 and 18 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24°F.

Wednesday: A chance of snow showers before noon, then a chance of rain and snow showers. Southwest wind around 14 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 37°F.

Wednesday Night: A 40% chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24°F.

Thursday: A slight chance of rain and snow showers. Chance of precipitation is 20%. Partly sunny, with a high near 43°F.

Thursday Night: A 20% chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24°F.

Friday: A chance of rain and snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 41°F.

Friday Night: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 20°F.

Saturday: Scattered snow showers. Some thunder is also possible. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 35°F.

 Hazardous Weather  Gibbon Falls Forecast  Mammoth Forecast  Midway Forecast  Norris Forecast  Old Faithful Forecast 

Mountain Weather

This morning skies are clear, temperatures are ranging between the mid-twenties to low thirties Fahrenheit and winds are blowing out of the West-southwest at 15-25 mph. Today, skies will be partly cloudy, temperatures will warm into the mid-thirties to low forties Fahrenheit and winds will continue to blow out of the West-southwest at 15-30 mph. A change in the weather will take place this evening as a cold front approaches from the west. Skies will become mostly cloudy by tonight and temperatures will be cooler than what we've seen the past few days. Unfortunately there is very little moisture associated with this cold front.

Snowpack and Avalanche Discussion:

The Madison and Gallatin Ranges, the mountains around Cooke City, the Lionhead area near West Yellowstone and the Bridger Range:

Solar radiation and warm temperatures have affected slopes with a southerly aspect, while shady slopes on the northern portion of the compass continue to hold sections of cold and sometimes powdery snow. Beneath the surface however, two problematic weak layers lurk on all aspects – a layer of near surface facets buried 2 to 3 feet deep and a layer of depth hoar near the ground.

Yesterday, Mark and I rode into the Taylor Fork and found the near surface facet layer to be reactive in stability tests (video). It was taking hard force to get this layer to fail, but the fact it was propagating made us not trust it. Farther to the north, snowmobilers near Buck Ridge triggered a substantial slide on this layer yesterday (photo). The slide broke 2 to 3 feet deep, propagated over 100 feet across and failed on an east facing - heavily wind loaded slope. This layer also produced natural and human triggered avalanches earlier in the week (photo, photo).

The problem with this layer is it can be found on most slopes, but its strength is high variable. On one slope it will propagate in stability tests while on an adjacent slope it will give you stable results. The best approach is dig down on the slope you plan to ride to evaluate the strength and distribution of this layer. Digging down 3 to 4 feet to assess this layer takes a short amount of time and is a worth wile investment before committing to steep terrain.

An equally dangerous threat today will be the possibility of wet slides. Several days of warm weather and direct solar radiation have weakened the surface snow on southerly aspects. Although temperatures dropped slightly below freezing last night, above average temperatures today and direct sun will make for unstable conditions on sun-exposed slopes. Yesterday, a large wet loose avalanche initiated high above Cleopatra's Needle in Hyalite, sending a large volume of debris over the climb. Steep, rocky terrain such as the gullies in Hyalite will be prime areas for wet loose avalanches to occur. Wet loose avalanches will be most prevalent during the afternoon hours. Also, wet loose avalanches can trigger deeper layers in the snowpack.

A less likely, but potential threat is the possibility of wet slab avalanches. As the snowpack endures multiple days of above freezing temperatures, free water moving through the pack can create unstable conditions. Steep, south facing slopes, specifically those with a shallow snowpack will be the most prone to wet slab avalanches.

Today, the Avalanche Danger is rated MODERATE. However, as temperatures climb to well above freezing, the danger of wet snow Avalanches could rise to CONSIDERABLE by this afternoon on sun exposed slopes. Pinwheels and point releases are indicators of rising instability. Slopes displaying these signs should be avoided.

   Recent avalanche in Utah   

A snowmobiler was caught and buried in an avalanche in Utah on Sunday. He was not wearing a beacon and was buried for about 20 minutes. He was incredibly lucky. Few people buried this long survive. Also, notice a recent avalanche on the adjacent slope. Recent avalanches are clear signs of unstable conditions: http://vimeo.com/38078462.

* * Accident Report * *

The accident reports for the avalanche fatality near Cooke City and the slide on Saddle Peak are now available. See this link.

* * * Last Saturday Francis Skierka from Cut Bank, Montana died in an avalanche in northwestern Montana near Marias Pass. Sadly his wife, Andrea, is pregnant and due in two months. A memorial fund to help Andrea and her baby has been established: The Francis Skierka Family Memorial, Stockman Bank, 125 West Main, Cut Bank MT 59427, 406-873-9400. * * *

The next advisory tomorrow morning at 7:30 a.m. If you have any snowpack or avalanche observations, drop us a line at mtavalanche@gmail.com or call us at: 406-587-6984.

For Audio, Photos, Videos, and More Detailed Information related to this report, Please Visit the Gallatin National Forest Avalanche Center.

~ EVENT ~

31st Annual Pinhead Classic

Come to Bridger Bowl on Saturday, March 17th (Saint Patrick's Day) with telemark skis, AT skis, alpine skis, snowboards, split boards, or even snow blades. The theme is Snowpocalypse based on the wildly popular Mayan 2012 apocalypse. $30 gets you into the races, a pint glass, t-shirt, a good time, a raffle ticket, and food by Cafe Fresco. Pre-register at Mystery Ranch or Grizzly Ridge: March 11-16. Visit http://pinheadclassic.com/ or the Pinhead Facebook Page for more info.

Beacon Parks

The Friends of the Avalanche Center installed a Beacon Training Park outside West Yellowstone. It's located south of town on the main snowmobile trail. Stop by and do a quick practice before heading off into the mountains!

EDUCATION, EVENTS, PHOTOS, SNOWPITS, and VIDEOS

1. We've recently uploaded more photos and snowpits to our web site, more than what are linked in the advisory.

2. We're creating a series of "How To…" stability test videos. So far we've got clips on performing a CT and ECT. There are located under Stability Tests on the Resources page.

3. Check out all our education programs, Click Here.

Information provided by Doug Chabot, Mark Staples, and Eric Knoff from the Gallatin National Forest Avalanche Center. For Events and Education, or Photos and Videos, please visit the Avalanche Centers Website!

If you have any snowpack or avalanche observations, drop them a line at mtavalanche@gmail.com or call: 406-587-6984.

For detailed Avalanche Terms utilized here, please see the Avalanche Glossary.