Today: A 20% chance of snow showers before noon. Breezy, with a southwest wind between 22 and 24 mph, with gusts as high as 34 mph. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 39°F.

Tonight: Breezy, with a southwest wind between 20 and 23 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24°F.

Tuesday: A slight chance of snow before noon, then a chance of rain. Breezy, with a southwest wind between 20 and 28 mph, with gusts as high as 39 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Cloudy, with a high near 42°F.

Tuesday Night: Snow likely, mainly after midnight. Breezy, with a southwest wind between 22 and 25 mph, with gusts as high as 36 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25°F.

Wednesday: Snow likely before noon, then rain likely. Breezy, with a southwest wind between 16 and 22 mph, with gusts as high as 31 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 42°F.

Wednesday Night: A 40% chance of snow. Southwest wind around 14 mph. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25°F.

Thursday: A 30% chance of snow showers. Southwest wind between 11 and 14 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 42°F.

Thursday Night: A 40% chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25°F.

Friday: Snow showers likely. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Mostly cloudy and breezy, with a high near 40°F.

Friday Night: A 50% chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 18°F.

Saturday: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 33°F.

Saturday Night: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 11°F.

Sunday: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 32°F.

 Hazardous Weather  Gibbon Falls Forecast  Mammoth Forecast  Midway Forecast  Norris Forecast  Old Faithful Forecast 

Mountain Weather

Since early this morning a fast moving storm has dropped nine inches of snow in the Bridger Range, 2 to 3 inches in the northern Madison and Northern Gallatin Ranges and a trace to one inch elsewhere. Currently, mountain temperatures are in the teens Fahrenheit around Big Sky and low to mid-twenties Fahrenheit over the rest of our advisory area. Winds are blowing 15-30 mph out of the West-southwest with gusts reaching close to 40 mph. Today, temperatures will warm into the high 20s to low 30s Fahrenheit and winds will continue to blow 25-35 mph out of the West-southwest. Snow will end late this morning but skies will remain mostly cloudy through the day. A warm and dry pattern will settle in this afternoon and remain in place through tomorrow.

Snowpack and Avalanche Discussion:

The Bridger Range:

The primary concern for the Bridger Range will be wind slabs. Nine inches of new snow combined with strong upper elevation winds will make slab development most prominent below the ridgelines. West-southwest winds will make slopes on the east half of the compass most susceptible to wind loading. Slabs triggered high on the slope have the ability to entrain large volumes of snow and run long distances.

A secondary concern will be avalanches breaking on deeper layers in the snowpack. Slides initiated within the storm snow have the potential to step down to faceted layers buried 2 to 3 feet deep. Steep, rocky terrain will be the most likely to produce deeper avalanches.

Today, human triggered avalanches are likely on wind loaded slopes which have a CONSIDERABLE Avalanche Danger. Non-wind loaded slopes have a MODERATE Avalanche Danger.

The northern Madison Range:

The northern Madison Range has the weakest snow in our forecast zone. Over the past week multiple natural and human triggered avalanches have been reported in this area (photo, photo). Yesterday, Doug and I went on the hunt for weak snow in the mountains around Big Sky. Doug and his partners explored the Big Sky sidecountry while my partner and I assessed conditions on Yellow Mountain (video). Although we were miles apart, we found very similar conditions with the weakest snow being on east and south facing slopes. We both got columns to propagate with medium force on the facet layer buried two feet deep and Doug also got a column to propagate on the depth hoar near the ground.

Although the northern Madison Range only received three inches of new snow, strong winds out of the west-southwest will be loading leeward slopes. Fresh wind slabs will likely be forming over a firm ice crust, which will provide a smooth surface for slides to run. Avalanches initiated in the new snow could step down to faceted layers buried deeper in the snowpack.

Today, new snow and strong winds will make human triggered avalanches likely on wind loaded slopes steeper than 35 degrees which have a CONSIDERABLE Avalanche Danger. All other slopes have a MODERATE Avalanche Danger.

The Southern Madison and Gallatin Ranges, the mountains around Cooke City and the Lionhead area near West Yellowstone:

Dust on crust, lipstick on a pig – however you look at it riding conditions will be highly variable today. As cloudy conditions and cooler temps replace the warm-dry weather of the past five days, our primary concern will continue to be the weak, faceted layer buried 2 to 3 feet deep.

On Saturday Mark and I rode in the Taylor Fork and found this layer to be reactive in stability tests (video). Although it was taking hard force to get this layer to fail, it continuously demonstrated its ability to propagate. We also know this layer exists in the Gallatin Range (photo), mountains around Cooke City (photo) and Lionhead area near West Yellowstone.

The most likely areas to trigger a slide today will be on unsupported terrain features such as steep rollovers or in steep rocky terrain where the snowpack is shallow.

Buried persistent weak layers will continue to make human triggered avalanches possible and the Avalanche Danger is rated MODERATE.

   Recent avalanche in Utah   

A snowmobiler was caught and buried in an avalanche in Utah on Sunday. He was not wearing a beacon and was buried for about 20 minutes. He was incredibly lucky. Few people buried this long survive. Also, notice a recent avalanche on the adjacent slope. Recent avalanches are clear signs of unstable conditions: http://vimeo.com/38078462.

* * Accident Report * *

The accident reports for the avalanche fatality near Cooke City and the slide on Saddle Peak are now available. See this link.

* * * Last Saturday Francis Skierka from Cut Bank, Montana died in an avalanche in northwestern Montana near Marias Pass. Sadly his wife, Andrea, is pregnant and due in two months. A memorial fund to help Andrea and her baby has been established: The Francis Skierka Family Memorial, Stockman Bank, 125 West Main, Cut Bank MT 59427, 406-873-9400. * * *

The next advisory tomorrow morning at 7:30 a.m. If you have any snowpack or avalanche observations, drop us a line at mtavalanche@gmail.com or call us at: 406-587-6984.

For Audio, Photos, Videos, and More Detailed Information related to this report, Please Visit the Gallatin National Forest Avalanche Center.

~ EVENT ~

31st Annual Pinhead Classic

Come to Bridger Bowl on Saturday, March 17th (Saint Patrick's Day) with telemark skis, AT skis, alpine skis, snowboards, split boards, or even snow blades. The theme is Snowpocalypse based on the wildly popular Mayan 2012 apocalypse. $30 gets you into the races, a pint glass, t-shirt, a good time, a raffle ticket, and food by Cafe Fresco. Pre-register at Mystery Ranch or Grizzly Ridge: March 11-16. Visit http://pinheadclassic.com/ or the Pinhead Facebook Page for more info.

Beacon Parks

The Friends of the Avalanche Center installed a Beacon Training Park outside West Yellowstone. It's located south of town on the main snowmobile trail. Stop by and do a quick practice before heading off into the mountains!

EDUCATION, EVENTS, PHOTOS, SNOWPITS, and VIDEOS

1. We've recently uploaded more photos and snowpits to our web site, more than what are linked in the advisory.

2. We're creating a series of "How To…" stability test videos. So far we've got clips on performing a CT and ECT. There are located under Stability Tests on the Resources page.

3. Check out all our education programs, Click Here.

Information provided by Doug Chabot, Mark Staples, and Eric Knoff from the Gallatin National Forest Avalanche Center. For Events and Education, or Photos and Videos, please visit the Avalanche Centers Website!

If you have any snowpack or avalanche observations, drop them a line at mtavalanche@gmail.com or call: 406-587-6984.

For detailed Avalanche Terms utilized here, please see the Avalanche Glossary.