Today: A 50% chance of snow, mainly after noon. Breezy, with a southwest wind between 21 and 29 mph, with gusts as high as 43 mph. Total daytime snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. Cloudy, with a high near 39°F.

Tonight: Snow likely. Breezy, with a southwest wind between 23 and 28 mph, with gusts as high as 41 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 5 inches possible. Cloudy, with a low around 25°F.

Wednesday: Snow showers likely before noon, then rain showers likely. Breezy, with a southwest wind between 17 and 22 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Cloudy, with a high near 41°F.

Wednesday Night: Scattered snow showers. Breezy, with a southwest wind between 16 and 20 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26°F.

Thursday: Scattered snow showers before noon, then scattered rain showers. Southwest wind between 11 and 14 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. New snow accumulation of around an inch possible. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 43°F.

Thursday Night: Scattered snow showers. Southwest wind around 13 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24°F.

Friday: Snow showers likely. Breezy, with a southwest wind between 18 and 24 mph, with gusts as high as 33 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 41°F.

Friday Night: A 50% chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 24°F.

Saturday: A 50% chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 37°F.

Saturday Night: A 50% chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 14°F.

Sunday: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 28°F.

Sunday Night: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 10°F.

Monday: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 32°F.

 Hazardous Weather  Gibbon Falls Forecast  Mammoth Forecast  Midway Forecast  Norris Forecast  Old Faithful Forecast 

Mountain Weather

Warm and windy describe this morning's weather. Mountain temperatures are near 30 degrees Fahrenheit under partly cloudy skies as west to southwest winds average 25-30 mph and gusts to 70 mph at the Yellowstone Club. Clouds will increase as a cold front moves in from the southwest. Winds will get even stronger as the front passes later today. Temperatures will drop into the low 20s Fahrenheit and by morning the southern mountains will get 2 to 4 inches of snow with the northern ranges getting 1 to 2 inches.

Snowpack and Avalanche Discussion:

The Bridger, Gallatin and Madison Ranges, the mountains around Cooke City and the Lionhead area near West Yellowstone:

Throughout our entire forecast area we are finding weak layers propagating in our stability tests. Extended Column Tests (ECT) are our consistent favorite. These tests are showing instability in two layers:

1. Facets two to three feet below the surface, or

2. On poorly bonded depth hoar crystals near the ground, typically on slopes with less than four feet of snow.

Yesterday my partner and I went into the Throne area of Bracket Creek in the Bridger Range. We found eight inches of dense new snow described as "Alaska cream dream". This new snow adhered to the melt freeze crust on east and south faces and bonded well to the old snow surface on other aspects. The only activity we saw were a few loose sluffs on steeper slopes.

The snowpack was less than four feet deep in our pit and we had depth hoar failing in our stability tests (photo).

On Sunday, Eric and I went to different areas of the northern Madison Range and got similar results of fractures propagating in our stability tests on both layers of facets (video). An MSU student doing research on Mount Ellis did 40 ECTs yesterday, all propagating on a layer about two feet deep. In the last week we've had reports of either avalanche activity or stability tests propagating in Hyalite, Beehive Basin, Buck Ridge, Yellow Mountain, Taylor Fork and Lionhead.

The snow structure is still poor as evidenced in our snowpit profiles. Getting slopes to fracture is getting more difficult with time, yet the buried weak layers are still breaking in our tests. We are finding this on most slopes in our advisory area and it's our primary concern. A secondary concern is isolated pockets of wind-blown snow in the Bridger Range. Since avalanches are still possible, for today, the Avalanche Danger is rated MODERATE.

Given the increasing cloud cover, winds and approaching cold front, I do not expect wet snow avalanches to be a concern today.

   Recent avalanche in Utah   

A snowmobiler was caught and buried in an avalanche in Utah on Sunday. He was not wearing a beacon and was buried for about 20 minutes. He was incredibly lucky. Few people buried this long survive. Also, notice a recent avalanche on the adjacent slope. Recent avalanches are clear signs of unstable conditions: http://vimeo.com/38078462.

* * Accident Report * *

The accident reports for the avalanche fatality near Cooke City and the slide on Saddle Peak are now available. See this link.

* * * Last Saturday Francis Skierka from Cut Bank, Montana died in an avalanche in northwestern Montana near Marias Pass. Sadly his wife, Andrea, is pregnant and due in two months. A memorial fund to help Andrea and her baby has been established: The Francis Skierka Family Memorial, Stockman Bank, 125 West Main, Cut Bank MT 59427, 406-873-9400. * * *

The next advisory tomorrow morning at 7:30 a.m. If you have any snowpack or avalanche observations, drop us a line at mtavalanche@gmail.com or call us at: 406-587-6984.

For Audio, Photos, Videos, and More Detailed Information related to this report, Please Visit the Gallatin National Forest Avalanche Center.

~ EVENT ~

31st Annual Pinhead Classic

Come to Bridger Bowl on Saturday, March 17th (Saint Patrick's Day) with telemark skis, AT skis, alpine skis, snowboards, split boards, or even snow blades. The theme is Snowpocalypse based on the wildly popular Mayan 2012 apocalypse. $30 gets you into the races, a pint glass, t-shirt, a good time, a raffle ticket, and food by Cafe Fresco. Pre-register at Mystery Ranch or Grizzly Ridge: March 11-16. Visit http://pinheadclassic.com/ or the Pinhead Facebook Page for more info.

Beacon Parks

The Friends of the Avalanche Center installed a Beacon Training Park outside West Yellowstone. It's located south of town on the main snowmobile trail. Stop by and do a quick practice before heading off into the mountains!

EDUCATION, EVENTS, PHOTOS, SNOWPITS, and VIDEOS

1. We've recently uploaded more photos and snowpits to our web site, more than what are linked in the advisory.

2. We're creating a series of "How To…" stability test videos. So far we've got clips on performing a CT and ECT. There are located under Stability Tests on the Resources page.

3. Check out all our education programs, Click Here.

Information provided by Doug Chabot, Mark Staples, and Eric Knoff from the Gallatin National Forest Avalanche Center. For Events and Education, or Photos and Videos, please visit the Avalanche Centers Website!

If you have any snowpack or avalanche observations, drop them a line at mtavalanche@gmail.com or call: 406-587-6984.

For detailed Avalanche Terms utilized here, please see the Avalanche Glossary.