Today: Snow before noon, then rain and snow. Breezy, with a southwest wind around 23 mph, with gusts as high as 32 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. High near 37°F.

Tonight: Snow likely, mainly before midnight. Breezy, with a southwest wind between 17 and 21 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Cloudy, with a low around 27°F.

Thursday: A chance of snow before noon, then a chance of rain. Southwest wind between 13 and 16 mph, with gusts as high as 23 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%. New snow accumulation of less than a half inch possible. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40°F.

Thursday Night: A 50% chance of snow. South southwest wind between 15 and 18 mph, with gusts as high as 25 mph. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 26°F.

Friday: Snow likely before noon, then rain and snow likely. Breezy, with a southwest wind between 18 and 21 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible. Cloudy, with a high near 39°F.

Friday Night: Snow likely, mainly after midnight. South southwest wind between 10 and 15 mph, with gusts as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 23°F.

Saturday: Snow showers likely before noon, then rain and snow showers likely. South southwest wind around 17 mph, with gusts as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 40°F.

Saturday Night: Snow showers likely. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 18°F.

Sunday: A 50% chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 33°F.

Sunday Night: A 40% chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 12°F.

Monday: A chance of snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 34°F.

Monday Night: A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 11°F.

Tuesday: A slight chance of snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 36°F.

 Hazardous Weather  Gibbon Falls Forecast  Mammoth Forecast  Midway Forecast  Norris Forecast  Old Faithful Forecast 

Mountain Weather

Yesterday was windy at all elevations with southwest winds hitting 93 mph on Lone Mountain. Winds died down last night before the snowfall started. As of 6:00 AM the Bridger Range and mountains around Big Sky have six inches of snow while the southern Madison Range and mountains around West Yellowstone and Cooke City got 2 to 3 inches. Temperatures dropped into the mid-20s Fahrenheit last night and winds are now West-southwest at 20-40 mph. Today, temperature and winds will not change much. A moist southwest flow will bring mostly cloudy skies and sporadic snowfall through tonight. By morning I expect 2 to 4 inches.

Snowpack and Avalanche Discussion:

The Bridger and northern Madison Ranges:

Although the Bridger Bowl and Moonlight Basin show 6 inches of snow, the Bridgers received close to double the water weight (1 inch SWE vs .5 inch SWE). Ridgetop winds are currently strong enough to move this high density snow onto leeward slopes. Be aware that yesterday winds whipped at all elevations creating mid-mountain slabs that are hidden by today's new snow.

Snow fell as temperatures dropped which helped it bond to the old snow surface no matter if it was a sun crust or not. Our stability concerns lie deeper in the snowpack. In the last six days Mark, Eric and I have spent time in the northern Madison (video) and Bridger Ranges (photo) digging snowpits. Poor snow structure, weak stability tests and avalanche activity near Cedar Mountain and Buck Ridge last week illustrate the lingering instabilities. We have two weak layers that are under increasing stress with this new snowfall: depth hoar near the ground or a thin layer of facets 2-3 feet under the surface.

We just added a lot of weight very quickly to the snowpack. This new snow will heighten the Avalanche Danger to CONSIDERABLE on any slope steeper than 35 degrees or any slope with a wind-load. All other slopes will have a MODERATE danger.

The Gallatin and southern Madison Ranges, the mountains around Cooke City and the Lionhead area near West Yellowstone::

Snowfall last night was not as generous in the Gallatin Range (where Hyalite got nothing) or in the mountains around West Yellowstone and Cooke City where 2 to 3 inches fell. Although snowfall distribution has not been uniform, the buried weak layers are. Depth hoar at the ground or facets 2 to 3 feet deep is still showing signs of instability in our snowpits (video). Mark is in Cooke City and found the weakest snows on slopes that are thinly covered, sometimes due to previous avalanche activity. Thin snowpacks harbor large, weak grains of depth hoar. Propagating fractures in our Extended Column Tests (video tutorial) are widespread: Hyalite, Taylor Fork, and Lionhead. Consequently, it's still possible to trigger an avalanche and the Avalanche Danger is rated MODERATE today.

   Recent avalanche in Utah   

A snowmobiler was caught and buried in an avalanche in Utah on Sunday. He was not wearing a beacon and was buried for about 20 minutes. He was incredibly lucky. Few people buried this long survive. Also, notice a recent avalanche on the adjacent slope. Recent avalanches are clear signs of unstable conditions: http://vimeo.com/38078462.

* * Accident Report * *

The accident reports for the avalanche fatality near Cooke City and the slide on Saddle Peak are now available. See this link.

* * * Last Saturday Francis Skierka from Cut Bank, Montana died in an avalanche in northwestern Montana near Marias Pass. Sadly his wife, Andrea, is pregnant and due in two months. A memorial fund to help Andrea and her baby has been established: The Francis Skierka Family Memorial, Stockman Bank, 125 West Main, Cut Bank MT 59427, 406-873-9400. * * *

The next advisory tomorrow morning at 7:30 a.m. If you have any snowpack or avalanche observations, drop us a line at mtavalanche@gmail.com or call us at: 406-587-6984.

For Audio, Photos, Videos, and More Detailed Information related to this report, Please Visit the Gallatin National Forest Avalanche Center.

~ EVENT ~

31st Annual Pinhead Classic

Come to Bridger Bowl on Saturday, March 17th (Saint Patrick's Day) with telemark skis, AT skis, alpine skis, snowboards, split boards, or even snow blades. The theme is Snowpocalypse based on the wildly popular Mayan 2012 apocalypse. $30 gets you into the races, a pint glass, t-shirt, a good time, a raffle ticket, and food by Cafe Fresco. Pre-register at Mystery Ranch or Grizzly Ridge: March 11-16. Visit http://pinheadclassic.com/ or the Pinhead Facebook Page for more info.

Beacon Parks

The Friends of the Avalanche Center installed a Beacon Training Park outside West Yellowstone. It's located south of town on the main snowmobile trail. Stop by and do a quick practice before heading off into the mountains!

EDUCATION, EVENTS, PHOTOS, SNOWPITS, and VIDEOS

1. We've recently uploaded more photos and snowpits to our web site, more than what are linked in the advisory.

2. We're creating a series of "How To…" stability test videos. So far we've got clips on performing a CT and ECT. There are located under Stability Tests on the Resources page.

3. Check out all our education programs, Click Here.

Information provided by Doug Chabot, Mark Staples, and Eric Knoff from the Gallatin National Forest Avalanche Center. For Events and Education, or Photos and Videos, please visit the Avalanche Centers Website!

If you have any snowpack or avalanche observations, drop them a line at mtavalanche@gmail.com or call: 406-587-6984.

For detailed Avalanche Terms utilized here, please see the Avalanche Glossary.