Caution advised for snow falling off of building roofs. Park accordingly.

Dangerous avalanche conditions may already exist in many back country areas, please call the Recorded Avalanche Advisory 406-587-6981 for the most current conditions.

Today: Breezy. Snow in the morning...then snow likely in the afternoon. Snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches. Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph. Chance of snow 80 percent. Highs 17°F to 23°F.

Tonight: Breezy. Snow likely in the evening...then snow after midnight. Areas of blowing snow through the night. Snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches. Southwest winds 15 to 25 mph. Gusts up to 40 mph early in the morning. Chance of snow 90 percent. Lows 10°F to 16°F.

Monday: Windy...snow. Areas of blowing snow. Snow accumulation of 4 to 7 inches. Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph. Chance of snow near 100 percent. Highs 23°F to 29°F.

Monday Night: Breezy...cloudy. Snow likely in the evening...then chance of snow after midnight. Snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches. Total snow accumulation 7 to 17 inches. Southwest winds 15 to 25 mph with gusts to around 40 mph. Chance of snow 70 percent. Lows 7°F to 13°F.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy. Chance of snow in the morning...then slight chance of snow in the afternoon. West winds around 15 mph in the morning. Chance of snow 40 percent. Highs 11°F to 17°F.

Tuesday Night: Colder. Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow. Lows -2°F to 4°F.

Wednesday: Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of snow. Highs 5°F to 11°F. Wind chill readings -13°F to -23°F.

Wednesday Night: Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of snow. Lows -2°F to 4°F.

Thursday: Not as cold. Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of snow. Highs 18°F to 24°F.

Thursday Night: Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of snow. Lows 10°F to 16°F.

Friday: Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of snow. Highs 23°F to 29°F.

Friday Night: Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of snow. Lows 14°F to 20°F.

Saturday: Partly cloudy. Highs 24°F to 30°F.

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Mountain Weather

Since yesterday morning 1 to 3 inches of snow fell over much of our forecast area. Today, a fast moving disturbance will deposit an additional 1 to 3 inches by this afternoon. Currently, temperatures are in the single digits to low teens and winds have increased out of the West-southwest blowing 15 to 30 mph. Temperatures will stay on the cool side with highs reaching the upper teens to mid-20°s F under cloudy skies. Winds will continue to blow 15 - 30 mph from the West-southwest with gusts reaching into the 40s mph. A more powerful storm is forecasted to impact our area tonight and tomorrow. Another 1 to 3 inches is possible by tomorrow morning. The southern mountains will be favored picking up 6 to 8 inches by tomorrow afternoon. The northern ranges will likely see 3 to 5 inches.

Snowpack and Avalanche Discussion:

The Bridger, Gallatin and Madison Ranges, the Lionhead area near West Yellowstone and mountains around Cooke City:

Yesterday, my partner and I rode in the Taylor Fork in the southern Madison Range and saw the sun for approximately one half hour. This seems to be the average length of time for high pressure systems sitting over southwest Montana. As storms continue to roll through, the snowpack is being constantly tested. Fortunately, the pack is holding up well.

One contributing factor to a well behaved snowpack is the lack of wind. This is a bit unusual for southwest Montana. Don't worry though; this next round of storms will pack a much breezier punch. Today, wind slabs will be the primary avalanche concern. Strong winds out of the West-southwest will easily transport fresh, low density snow. Slopes directly below ridgelines or on the lee side of cross loaded terrain features will be likely areas to find fresh wind drifts.

I expect these areas to be sensitive to the weight of skier or rider. Cracking and collapsing of wind deposited snow is a sure sign of instability. On a positive note, fresh wind slabs are relatively easy to identify and avoid. Steering clear of wind loaded slopes today will be the best way to avoid avalanches.

A secondary concern is avalanches failing on weak layers now buried several feet in the snowpack. During our trip to the Taylor Fork yesterday, we found the same layer of buried surface hoar that Mark found ten days ago. Fortunately, this layer has gained strength and did not produce unstable results in stability tests. However, the potential for triggering a slide on a deeper weak layer remains. Areas where the snowpack is shallow and thin, mainly around rock bands or scoured ridgelines will be areas most prone to triggering deeper avalanches. Also, slides failing in the new snow make great triggers for larger avalanches.

Today, plenty of fresh snow and strong winds will make human triggered avalanches likely on wind loaded slopes steeper than 35 degrees which have a CONSIDERABLE Avalanche Danger. All other slopes have a MODERATE Avalanche Danger.

The next advisory tomorrow morning at 7:30 a.m. If you have any snowpack or avalanche observations, drop us a line at mtavalanche@gmail.com or call us at: 406-587-6984.

PHOTOS, SNOWPITS, and VIDEOS

1. We've recently uploaded more photos and snowpits to our web site, more than what are linked in the advisory.

2. We're creating a series of "How To…" stability test videos. So far we've got clips on performing a CT and ECT. There are located under Stability Tests on the Resources page.

Information provided by Doug Chabot, Mark Staples, and Eric Knoff from the Gallatin National Forest Avalanche Center. For Photos and Videos, please visit the Avalanche Centers Website!

If you have any snowpack or avalanche observations, drop them a line at mtavalanche@gmail.com or call: 406-587-6984.

For detailed Avalanche Terms utilized here, please see the Avalanche Glossary.