Caution advised for snow falling off of building roofs. Park accordingly.

Dangerous avalanche conditions may already exist in many back country areas, please call the Recorded Avalanche Advisory 406-587-6981 for the most current conditions. Also, see the Avalanche Advisory posted below.

Today: Mostly cloudy in the morning then becoming partly cloudy. Isolated snow showers. Chance of snow 20 percent. Highs 24°F to 30°F.

Tonight: Partly cloudy in the evening then clearing. Lows 7°F to 13°F.

Saturday: Breezy. Partly cloudy. Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph. Highs 26°F to 32°F.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy in the evening then becoming mostly cloudy. A 50 percent chance of snow. Southwest winds around 15 mph. Lows 11°F to 17°F.

Sunday: Snow likely. Snow accumulation of 2 to 3 inches. West winds around 15 mph in the afternoon. Chance of snow 70 percent. Highs 19°F to 25°F.

Sunday Night: Colder. Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. A 40 percent chance of snow. Lows 4°F to 10°F.

Monday / Presidents' Day: Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of snow. Highs 18°F to 24°F.

Monday Night / Presidents' Day Night: Partly cloudy. Lows 5°F to 11°F.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of snow. Highs 24°F to 30°F.

Tuesday Night: Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow. Lows 9°F to 15°F.

Wednesday: Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow. Highs 21°F to 27°F.

Wednesday Night: Colder. Mostly cloudy in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. A 40 percent chance of snow. Lows 1°F to 7°F.

Thursday: Partly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of snow. Highs 21°F to 27°F.

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Mountain Weather

Since yesterday the northern Gallatin Range received 5 inches of new snow and probably more up high in Hyalite Canyon. The Bridger Range, northern Madison Range and mountains near Cooke City received 2 to 3 inches. The mountains closer to West Yellowstone received a trace to one inch. This morning temperatures were in the low teens Fahrenheit and winds were averaging 10 to 15 mph from the West and Northwest with gusts of 20 to 25 mph. Today will be partly sunny with temperatures around 20 degrees Fahrenheit. Winds will blow 10 mph and gust to 25 mph from the West and Northwest. Saturday should be sunny with more snow coming Sunday.

Snowpack and Avalanche Discussion:

Cooke City:

In the last 48 hours the Fisher Creek SNOTEL site reported 0.8 inches of snow water equivalent, but there is almost double this amount in places which means 1.5 feet of new snow. Winds yesterday afternoon were blowing 25 to 40 mph from the Northwest and averaging close to 20 mph this morning, perfect speeds for drifting the fresh powder. Yesterday a skier spotted several small avalanches, ski cut one, and experienced cracking in the new snow.

Stability evaluations are relatively simple in this area because the main avalanche problem is new snow and wind-blown snow. The exception is low elevation areas that have weak facets near the ground. In one of these areas 11 days ago a rider remotely triggered an avalanche following heavy snowfall. Today the Avalanche Danger is rated CONSIDERABLE on wind loaded slopes steeper than 35 degrees. All other slopes have a MODERATE Avalanche Danger.

Bridger, Southern Gallatin and Madison Ranges, and Lionhead area near West Yellowstone:

In the Bridger Range and the mountains near Big Sky and West Yellowstone, there has been light snowfall during the last few days and relatively light winds which were averaging 10 to 15 mph this morning. Yesterday ski patrols reported that wind loaded areas were not very reactive. The main concern is a layer of facets buried 1 to 2 feet deep (photo). This layer is more widespread closer to West Yellowstone. I don't expect many avalanches on it, but I would be looking for this layer before riding or skiing in avalanche terrain. The presence of this layer means human triggered avalanche are possible and the Avalanche Danger is rated MODERATE.

Northern Gallatin Range:

The northern Gallatin Range which includes Mount Ellis, Hyalite Canyon, and the Little Bear area, has two factors contributing to poor stability. This area received more snow than other places recently, and it has layers of weak facets on many slopes. Skiers on Mount Wheeler found a poor snowpack structure (photo) and a small recent avalanche, both red flags. A group of skiers in Hyalite Canyon triggered one small avalanche and saw several others all about 12 to 14 inches deep involving new snow with some wind loading.

Avalanches may easily break deeper in the snowpack on weak faceted layers now buried 2 to 3 feet deep (photo1, photo2). Late last night, ridgetop winds averaged 20 mph which is perfect for moving fresh powder. Today with new snow, wind, and widespread buried weak layers, the Avalanche Danger is CONSIDERABLE.

The next advisory tomorrow morning at 7:30 AM. If you have any snowpack or avalanche observations, drop us a line at mtavalanche@gmail.com or call us at: 406-587-6984.

EDUCATION, PHOTOS, SNOWPITS, and VIDEOS

1. For links to Articles, Education and (photos), (snowpits), or (videos) listed in the above report, please visit this Link.

2. They have recently uploaded more photos and snowpits to their web site, more than what are linked in the advisory above.

3. They have creating a series of "How To…" stability test videos. So far they have clips on performing a CT and ECT. They are located under Stability Tests on their Resources page.

Information provided by Doug Chabot, Mark Staples, and Eric Knoff from the Gallatin National Forest Avalanche Center. For Photos and Videos, please visit the Avalanche Centers Website!

If you have any snowpack or avalanche observations, drop them a line at mtavalanche@gmail.com or call: 406-587-6984.

For detailed Avalanche Terms utilized here, please see the Avalanche Glossary.