Caution advised for snow falling off of building roofs. Park accordingly.

Dangerous avalanche conditions may already exist in many back country areas, please call the Recorded Avalanche Advisory 406-587-6981 for the most current conditions. Also, see the Avalanche Advisory posted below.

Today: Cloudy with scattered snow showers. Chance of snow 50 percent. Highs 28°F to 34°F.

Tonight: Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow. Lows 10°F to 16°F.

Thursday: Cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow. Highs 22°F to 28°F.

Thursday Night: Mostly cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow. Lows 8°F to 14°F.

Friday: Breezy. Cloudy with a 40 percent chance of snow. Southwest winds 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Highs 21°F to 27°F.

Friday Night: Cloudy. Chance of snow in the evening...then snow likely after midnight. Light snow accumulations. Chance of snow 60 percent. Lows 13°F to 19°F.

Saturday: Snow likely. Light snow accumulations. Chance of snow 70 percent. Highs 28°F to 34°F.

Saturday Night: Cloudy with a 50 percent chance of snow. Lows 9°F to 15°F.

Sunday: Cloudy with a 30 percent chance of snow. Highs 21°F to 27°F.

Sunday Night: Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of snow. Lows 7°F to 13°F.

Monday: Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of snow. Highs 25°F to 31°F.

Monday Night: Mostly cloudy with a 30 percent chance of snow. Lows 9°F to 15°F.

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy with a 20 percent chance of snow. Highs 25°F to 31°F.

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Mountain Weather

Since yesterday morning a trace to one inch of snow fell in the southern mountains. Under clear to partly cloudy skies temperatures are in the teens Fahrenheit and winds are eerily calm. Clouds will increase today with light northwest winds and temperatures in the low twenties Fahrenheit. Scattered snow showers will drop 1 to 2 inches tonight.

Snowpack and Avalanche Discussion:

Cooke City:

Yesterday there were two human triggered avalanches outside Cooke City. These are on the heels of slides on Saturday (photo) and Monday (photo). A skier took a long, nasty ride down an east facing couloir off Miller Ridge yesterday when the cornice he was standing on broke and triggered a slide. He was not buried and sustained minor injuries. Also yesterday, sledders triggered a slide on a southwest facing slope in Sheep Basin where there was a thin snowpack (photo). These avalanches are breaking on facets in shallow areas or on a thin layer of facets sitting on an ice crust 1 to 2 feet deep. All this avalanche activity is causing me deep concern. Bulls-eye data is not to be trifled with. My uncertainty level about stability is higher than I want, so I'm being conservative in my danger rating and folks should be conservative in their travel habits. The Avalanche Danger is rated CONSIDERABLE on all slopes steeper than 35 degrees and MODERATE on all other terrain.

Bridger, Gallatin, and Madison Ranges, and Lionhead Area near West Yellowstone:

There have been avalanches or signs of instability reported every day since Friday. Besides the avalanche on Bridger Peak, four snowmobilers in Lionhead on Sunday were searching for the last scraps of untracked powder when they triggered a slide catching all of them (photo). Two riders deployed their airbags and everyone was uninjured.

From the Bridger Range to West Yellowstone, snow depths may vary, but the culprit creating these instabilities are buried facets. In thinner spots these are found 2 to 3 feet deep on the ground, while in deeper areas they are located midpack. Yesterday, Mark rode and dug along Buck Ridge. On most slopes he found weak snow in the lower half of the snowpack and his stability tests showed lingering problems (snowpit). Conditions are not "green light" or "go for it", here or anywhere else.

Assessment of snow stability is tricky and serious. As we can see with wall to wall tracks, the snowpack is not hair trigger. In fact, most people can blindly ski or snowmobile around and return unscathed. Natural avalanches are not happening; cracking and collapsing are not found on many slopes; the recent avalanches might be miles away from your intended line. But do not fool yourself into thinking everything is honkey dory. I call these conditions a "scary" Moderate. This is when our travel advice follows the recommendations under a Considerable danger ("careful snowpack evaluation…"), but the likelihood of avalanches along with their size fit into a Moderate danger ("human triggered possible…naturals unlikely"). For today, the Avalanche Danger is rated (scary) MODERATE.

The next advisory tomorrow morning at 7:30 AM. If you have any snowpack or avalanche observations, drop us a line at mtavalanche@gmail.com or call us at: 406-587-6984.

EDUCATION, PHOTOS, SNOWPITS, and VIDEOS

1. For links to Articles, Education and (photos), (snowpits), or (videos) listed in the above report, please visit this Link.

2. They have recently uploaded more photos and snowpits to their web site, more than what are linked in the advisory above.

3. They have creating a series of "How To…" stability test videos. So far they have clips on performing a CT and ECT. They are located under Stability Tests on their Resources page.

Information provided by Doug Chabot, Mark Staples, and Eric Knoff from the Gallatin National Forest Avalanche Center. For Photos and Videos, please visit the Avalanche Centers Website!

If you have any snowpack or avalanche observations, drop them a line at mtavalanche@gmail.com or call: 406-587-6984.

For detailed Avalanche Terms utilized here, please see the Avalanche Glossary.